Deep Bullseyes; Snow forecast through 2/27

Tomer’s Take: A northwest flow (NWF) and two storm systems are lined-up late 2/18 through 2/24. A few deep snow accumulation bullseyes are likely along with strong wind and colder air. Then it’s a waiting game for the next trough late February into early March.

My forecast video 2/18:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows a busy Pacific and split jet flow. You can see the NWF taking shape.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 2/27. It’s a waiting game for the tough sitting over the Pacific. Until it arrives we’ll see high pressure ridging over the Intermountain West.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 2/18-2/23.

Jackson Hole, WY

2/18 Late: 3″

2/19: 4″

2/20: 9″

2/21: 18″

2/22: 5″

2/23: 4″

2/24: 4″

2/25: 4″

Aspen/Snowmass

2/19: 2″

2/20: 1″

2/21: 3″

2/22: 10″

2/23: 4″

2/24: 4″

Alta, UT

2/19: 2″

2/20: 1″

2/21: 14″

2/22: 12″

2/23: 3″

2/24: 1″

Forecast Totals

2/18-2/20:

2/21-2/27:

2/18-2/27:

Southern Mountains of Colorado grand totals.

2/18-2/27:

Central + Northern Mountains of Colorado grand totals.

2/18-2/27:

Wasatch grand totals.

2/18-2/27:

Teton grand totals.

2/18-2/27:

The bulk of this occurs 2/23 and 2/25-2/26.

Big totals 2/19-2/26; Pattern Early March

Tomer’s Take: Big totals result from an initial northwest flow (NWF) then 1-2 different storm systems dive south through the Rockies with colder air and widespread snow. Looking ahead, the March 1 pattern stays unsettled across the West with lower atmospheric pressure anomalies across the West Coast.

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows one low diving south off the CA coast. This low fades. Behind it a large area of low pressure fills the void with a powerful northwest flow via the northern jet branch. This sets the stage 2/19-2/26 for heavy snow across the West.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 2/26. Waiting on the next trough.

March 1

Forecast atmospheric pressure anomalies valid March 1. Notice the lower pressure anomalies across the West. This would translate into an active pattern.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 2/17-2/22.

Jackson Hole, WY

2/18: 2″

2/19: 2″

2/20: 10″

2/21: 18″

2/22: 4″

2/23: 4″

2/24: 4″

2/25: 4″

Alta, UT

2/19: 1″

2/20: 3″

2/21: 18″

2/22: 12″

2/23: 2″

Crested Butte, CO

2/19: 1″

2/20: 2″

2/21: 1″

2/22: 8″

2/23: 4″

2/24: 3″

Forecast Totals

2/17-2/19:

2/20-2/26:

2/17-2/26:

Central + Northern Mountains of Colorado grand totals.

2/17-2/26:

Teton grand totals.

2/17-2/26:

Wasatch grand totals.

2/17-2/26:

Snow and Pattern through end of February; Deep Bullseyes

Tomer’s Take: An active pattern for the West is shaping up 2/19-2/25. A Northwest Flow (NWF) sets up early then two different areas of low pressure deliver colder air and widespread heavy snow with a few deep bullseyes. Looking ahead, the end of February and early March are trending active with lower than normal atmospheric pressures across the Intermountain West.

Purgatory Resort in Colorado is reporting 37 inches in 3 days. Skies have cleared with a beautiful day on tap.

Current Setup

Infrared satellite shows an active northern and southern branch of the jet.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 2/16-2/21. A trough is sliding through the Rockies plus a NWF.

Forecast jet stream valid 2/25. Notice the trough and area of low pressure across the West. Active weather continues.

March 1

Forecast mid-atmospheric pressure anomalies valid March 1. Lower than normal pressures across the West suggest an active pattern.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 2/16-2/21.

Alta, UT

2/19: 1″

2/21: 14″

2/22: 14″

2/23: 4″

2/24: 10″

2/25: 4″

2/25: 4″

Crested Butte, CO

2/19: 1″

2/21: 10″

2/22: 14″

2/23: 4″

Jackson Hole, WY

2/18: 3″

2/19: 3″

2/20: 12:

2/21: 3″

2/22: 10″

2/23: 6″

2/24: 3″

2/25: 1″

Forecast Totals

2/16-2/18:

2/19-2/25:

Notice the deep bullseyes.

2/16-2/25:

Central + Northern Mountains, CO grand totals.

2/16-2/25:

Wasatch grand totals.

2/16-2/25:

The bulk of this accumulation occurs 2/22-2/24.

Active pattern through 2/24 for West

Tomer’s Take: An ABQ low is dropping heavy snow and colder air in CO and NM through 2/15. Then a Northwest Flow (NWF) develops on/around 2/19 followed by two additional storm systems, colder air, and big totals through 2/24.

22″ in 24 hours at Wolf Creek with more on the way.

7″ in 24 hours at Aspen Highlands.

13″ in 24 hours at Jackson Hole.

Season Totals so far:

Current Setup

Infrared satellite shows the ABQ low pressure and two additional storm systems lined-up in the Pacific. Strong jet involvement from both branches.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 2/20. A NWF develops on 2/19 and then two additional storm systems are escorted in via both jet branches. This is a snowy, active, colder pattern.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite 2/15-2/20.

Loveland Ski Area

Key snow dates:

2/15: 2″

2/19: 2″

2/20: 4″

2/21: 3″

2/22: 6″

2/23: 6″

2/24: 1″

Alta

Key snow dates:

2/20: 12″

2/21: 3″

2/22: 12″

2/23: 4″

2/24: 1″

Crested Butte

2/15: 6″

2/19: 1″

2/20: 12″

2/21: 2″

2/22: 12″

2/23: 2″

Forecast Totals

2/15-2/17:

2/18-2/24:

2/15-2/24.

Central + Northern Mountains of CO grand totals:

2/16-2/24:

The bulk of this snow occurs 2/22-2/23.

Bulleyes, Snow through 2/23

Tomer’s Take: Two storm systems deliver colder air and a few snow bullseyes through 2/23. Plus, a little NW Flow possible adding to the grand totals.

Taos is reporting 10″ in the last 24 hours with a lot more yet to go.

Taos Ski Valley cam, 2/14/2023.

Alta is reporting 5″ in the last 24 hours now officially breaking 500″ for the season so far!

Current Setup

Infrared satellite shows two primary storm systems lined-up.

  • 1st low 2/14-2/15
  • 2nd low 2/19-2/21

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 2/20. Good jet support and colder air for the 2/19-2/21 storm system. Plus some NW Flow adding to the totals.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 2/14-2/19.

Forecast Totals

2/14-2/16:

2/17-2/23:

2/14-2/23.

Southern CO grand totals:

2/14-2/23.

Central + Northern CO Grand Totals. A little NW Flow clearly having an effect.

2/14-2/23:

2-3 storm systems through 2/22; Bullseye locations

Tomer’s Take: I’m tracking one small southern track storm system and two larger storm systems through 2/22. There are a few bullseye locations.

Timing:

1st Low: Now-2/14, Southern Tier

2nd Low: 2/13-2/15, PNW to Rockies to ABQ Low

3rd Low: 2/19-2/21, PNW to Rockies to ABQ Low

One of my bullseye spots is Wolf Creek, CO where 3-4 feet of grand total snow is possible by 2/22.

It’s a beautiful morning but inbound snow starts around Lunch 2/13.

Current Setup

Infrared satellite shows a smaller area of low pressure slide through the southern tier. Two larger storm systems are lined-up in the Pacific.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 2/20. The trough is evident with jet support and colder air.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 2/13-2/18.

Wolf Creek

2/13: 8″

2/14: 12″

2/15: 17″

2/20: 2″

2/21: 10″

2/22: 2″

Taos

2/13: 4″

2/14: 8″

2/15: 8″

2/20: 3″

2/21: 6″

2/22: 2″

Forecast Totals

2/13-2/15:

2/16-2/22:

2/13-2/22.

Southern CO Grand Totals. These are the result of all three storm systems by 2/22.

2/13-2/22:

Big totals with two storm systems through 2/21

Tomer’s Take: Two different storm systems deliver big totals through 2/21. First storm system occurs 2/13-2/15 with colder and and good jet support. 2nd storm system occurs 2/19-2/20 and also has colder air and jet support from both branches.

My forecast video 2/12:

Taos

2/13: 4″

2/14: 9″

2/15: 11″

2/20: 6″

Jackson Hole

2/13: 2″

2/14: 6″

2/19: 5″

2/20: 6″

Forecast Totals

2/12-2/14:

2/15-2/21:

2/12-2/21, Southern CO:

2/12-2/21:

Snow Forecast through 2/20

Tomer’s Take: The main storm system of the period occurs 2/13-2/15 with colder air and big totals. A storm on it’s heels 2/19-2/20 is supported by both the southern and northern jet branches.

My video forecast update 2/11:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows a busy Pacific with both the northern and southern jets active.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 2/19. Notice the big trough and dip in the powerful jet with northern and southern branch involvement.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 2/11-2/16.

Wolf Creek

2/13: 8″

2/14: 20″

2/15: 20″

2/16: 2″

Taos

2/13: 3″

2/14: 7″

2/15: 12″

2/16: 1″

Forecast Totals

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 2/11-2/13.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 2/14-2/20.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 2/11-2/20.

Southern Colorado Grand Totals:

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 2/11-2/20.

Next Storm System

Tomer’s Take: The main storm system of the period is 2/13-2/15 with colder air and widespread heavy snow. A 2nd storm system hits on/about 2/18 with contribution from the northern and southern jets.

Current Setup

Infrared satellite shows three different areas of low pressure lined-up. The first low is small and will dive straight south through the Sierra then turn into a southern track low.

The 2nd low is the main low of the period 2/13-2/15.

The 3rd low hits the west after 2/18.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 2/19. The 2/18 storm system is evident with a big dip in a powerful jet stream. You’ll have a combination of a southern track low + energy spilling south from the northern branch.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 2/10-2/15.

Wolf Creek Pass

2/13: 4″

2/14: 12″

2/15: 16″

Taos

2/13: 6″

2/14: 2″

2/15: 14″

Forecast Totals

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 2/10-2/12.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 2/13-2/19.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 2/10-2/19.

Southern Colorado:

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 2/10-2/19.

PNW Snow, 2/14 Storm System

Tomer’s Take: The bullseye remains the PNW through 2/13. Then a large storm system (with colder air) sweeps through the Intermountain West on/after 2/14. This storm system develops into an ABQ Low with heavy snow potential for Southern CO and northern NM on 2/15.

Snow continues at Aspen/Snowmass this morning! Highlands is reporting 6″ in 24 hours.

Jackson Hole, WY is reporting 8″ in 24 hours. The storm has cleared. Look at this crystal clear morning over Cody Bowl.

My afternoon forecast video 2/9:

Current Setup

Infrared satellite shows the two primary storm systems over the Pacific.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 2/18. The main storm system slides through 2/13-2/15. By 2/18 another storm system an area of low pressure is affecting CA.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 2/9-2/14.

Mount Baker

2/9: 3″

2/10: 7″

2/11: 1″

2/12: 8″

2/13: 12″

Forecast Totals

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 2/9-2/11.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 2/12-2/18.

CO snow timing: 2/14-2/15

Teton snow timing: 2/13-2/14.

Taos snow timing: 2/13-2/15.

The storm system turns into an ABQ Low on 2/15 with heavy snow for Southern CO and northern NM.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 2/9-2/18.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 2/9-2/18.