Tag: Utah

Winter Forecast 2023-2024

Tomer’s Take: A Strong El Nino is likely with a screaming Subtropical Jet across the Southern Tier by January, February, March, April, and May 2024. I believe we’ll see a 30% El Nino Modoki contribution. This puts several major ski resorts on ‘The Bubble’. Atmospheric River (AR) setups are likely along with large East Coast […]

Update: Labor Day Weekend Mountain Forecast

Tomer’s Take: A dip in the jet, trough of low pressure, and small surge of Monsoon moisture remains in my forecast for the West between 9/1-9/5. I say 9/5 now because there might be one additional small area of low pressure riding the coattails. This pattern delivers cooler mountain temps and rain/snow/thunderstorms. Snow accumulation appears […]

Labor Day Weekend Mountain Forecast Looks Active

Tomer’s Take: A dip in the jet stream, trough of low pressure, and small surge of Monsoonal moisture hits the Intermountain West between 9/1-9/4 then the pattern dries out. Who’s included? AZ, UT, NV, CO, WY, ID, MT. Precipitation will include rain, snow, and thunderstorms. Storm System Below is forecast jet stream level valid 9/2-9/3. […]

Curveballs: Labor Day Weekend Mountain Forecast and Beyond

Tomer’s Take: In my last update, I highlighted an active weather pattern for Labor Day Weekend and early September across the Intermountain West. The moisture will come in two waves, and you might even say curveballs. The first includes the remnants of a tropical system plus Monsoonal moisture 8/25-8/27, and a Monsoonal surge 8/31-9/2. Beyond […]

Hilary could hammer the Western High Peaks with snow and wind

Tomer’s Take: The remnants of Hurricane Hilary could impact many of the high peaks across the West 8/20-8/21 with strong wind and precipitation including very heavy snow on some California 14ers. This assumes the storm system stays on track. Below, the visible satellite view from GOES-18 shows Hurricane Hilary. I drew on the projected path. […]

What’s Next? End of August and September Forecast Looks Active

Tomer’s Take: Persistent trough is king out West, and this might foreshadow what to expect this El Nino driven Winter. The seasonal Monsoon was three weeks late and intensity was disrupted. It was a victim of larger scale pattern. Lower atmospheric pressures dominate the West Coast through the end of August and then transition into […]

Update: Ultra Season – Managing the Monsoon

Tomer’s Take: The Monsoon is late and weak. Moisture is slowly increasing across the desert southwest. Moisture increases in Colorado on 7/26 and ramps up into the first week of August. AZ, NM, NV, WY, UT, CO can all expect an increase in thunderstorms. The biggest Monsoon surge of the season so far is on […]

Pattern through July 1; Monsoon Season Preview

Tomer’s Take: The pattern is transitioning across the West. The abnormally wet pattern is moving out while more normal, warmer weather is moving in. This will introduce a drier period for the West until Monsoon Season kicks in. My opinion is that Monsoon Season will start about 1-2 weeks behind schedule. Normal Monsoon Season runs […]

Weekend Mountain Weather, Snow for PNW, July 1 Forecast

Tomer’s Take: An abnormally wet June continues through this weekend across parts of the West with widespread afternoon rain/thunderstorms. A large trough moves into the PNW 6/17-6/21 with high wind and snow for the high Cascades and Volcanoes. Looking down the road, drier weather moves into the West late June through early July with a […]

El Nino is here: What to expect across the West

Tomer’s Take: El Nino has arrived. The triple-dip La Nina is over. Bottom line, El Nino is here through Winter 2024. The La Nina for a generation The 2022-2023 La Nina delivered big time to CA, UT, and CO. In fact, it overdelivered. It overperformed in ways not seen in historical records. It was a […]