Tomer’s Take:

• Winter started late in many areas with warm/dry weather through most of November and early December.
• December ended strong in the Sierra and across the Intermountain West with a few moderate to strong atmospheric river (AR) setups.
• These AR’s hit parts of Colorado hard including above normal snowfall (100″) in Crested Butte.
• Then the storm track changed and the flow dried up.
• April delivered one last surge of snow to many places that were in desperate need.
• April also brought a 100-150mph jet stream that followed La Nina architecture and sat over the Intermountain West for 3 weeks. Abnormally strong winds prevailed.

Forecast vs Reality

Here is the Winter forecast I published in August/September 2021.

Here are the preliminary season totals for comparison.

There were hits and misses. A few highlights:

• Hit: Below normal snowfall Sierra Mountains
• Hit: Below normal snowfall Colorado’s Southern Mountains
• Hit & Miss: Normal snowfall across parts (not all) of Colorado’s Central and Northern Mountains
• Hit: Above normal snowfall across parts of the PNW
• Miss: I predicted normal snowfall across the Wasatch
• Worst Miss: I predicted above normal snowfall in the Tetons
• Miss: I predicted normal snowfall across Colorado’s Front Range ski areas

A few specifics, snowfall in inches:

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Tomer’s Take

• Western storm cycle concludes with a strong, windy, and slower moving storm system.
• High to Extreme wildfire risk precedes this storm system.
• Wind gusts could reach 100mph with blowing dust. A dust layer is possible on the snowpack.
• After 4/24 the pattern shifts. The storm track moves into PNW and turns more tranquil across the Intermountain West with high pressure rebuilding.

Infrared satellite shows the storm track and powerful Pacific storm system lined-up through 4/24.

Wind Gust Forecast

After 4/24

High pressure rebuilds across the Intermountain West. The storm track and low pressure anomalies shift to the PNW.

Snow Forecast

4/20-4/24:

4/25-4/29:

Tomer’s Take

• Two storm systems follow a powerful jet stream and deliver heavy snow to parts of the West through 4/24.
• California’s UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab is reporting a few feet of snow in the last 7 days.
• The first storm system is smaller and takes a more northern track and only brushes UT and CO.
• The second storm is larger and hits UT and CO with bigger impacts.
• What happens after 4/24? Pacific North American Pattern (PNA) turns neutral and the Intermountain West turns more tranquil. PNW gets most of the action.

Water vapor satellite shows the storm track hitting the West Coast and storm systems lined-up.

Western Snowpack

We’re ending the season with an active storm track. Many places need it, badly.

Wind Gust Forecast

Snow Forecast

4/19-4/24:

4/25-4/28:

Tomer’s Take

• Snow and wind continue in northern CA, ID, UT, WY, CO, NM through 4/15.
• Favorable WNW jet stream orientation adds orographic enhancement.
• Temps are below zero with strong wind in the Mountains of Colorado.
• Next storm hits CA 4/16 then takes a more northern track with heavy snow in the PNW, ID, WY, MT, and Banff area.
• This storm brushes the Wasatch and the Central and Northern Mountains of Colorado 4/16-4/17.

17″ new snow in the last 24 hours at Snowmass.

5″ new snow in the last 24 hours at Alta.

12″ new snow in the last 24 hours at Winter Park.

8″ new snow in the last 24 hours at Vail.

Water vapor satellite shows the WNW jet stream orientation over the Intermountain West and Pacific storm systems lined-up.

Wind Forecast

Snow Forecast

4/13-4/15:

4/16-4/22: