Blog - Page 36 of 62 - Meteorologist Chris Tomer

Snow forecast next 8 days

Post author By christomer
Post date November 3, 2022
Categories In Exercise, Forecasting, Hiking/Mountaineering, La Nina, Meteorology, Skiing, Snow
9 Comments on Snow forecast next 8 days

Tomer’s Take:

Three different storm systems likely through 11/10.
Storm #1 is currently sliding through UT, AZ, NM, and CO.
Storm #2 is part of an Atmospheric River (AR) that nails the PNW/BC then potentially the Sierra.
Storm #3 follows a similar track to Storm #2 and delivers another round of heavy snow to the Sierra and Intermountain West.

Last Day on Daybreak

When I’m not forecasting for mountaineers and skiers around the world, my primary job is forecasting weather on KDVR/KWGN-TV Daybreak morning show in Denver, CO. Today is my last day. I’ll still be at the station but my schedule will change. I’ve been getting up at 2:30am for over 10 years and it’s time to get some sleep. I’ll be joining a new show called Great Day Colorado (9-10am M-F) starting on January 3, 2023. I’ll be co-host with weather/lifestyle/interview responsibilities and part of a fantastic team. I’m grateful to the station for this new role!

I’ll continue with my mountain weather forecasts, this Blog, and my YouTube channel.

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the active storm track and three storm systems riding the flow. Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Heavy snow is currently falling at Wolf Creek in Colorado. I’m forecasting over a foot of total snow accumulation by Friday morning.

Skies have cleared at Alta, UT after a foot or more of storm total accumulation. Additional snow accumulation is likely with Storm #2 & Storm #3.

This was the view in Park City, UT on Wednesday afternoon. Photo from Burton J. Kloster III.

November 3-10

Forecast jet flow valid 11/5/2022. This is Storm #2. Storm #3 is behind. Notice the W-E orientation of the jet stream pointed directly at the PNW/BC. This is technically a brief moderate-strong Atmospheric River (AR) setup. Heavy rain/snow likely.

Forecast jet flow valid 11/6/2022.

Forecast jet flow valid 11/7/2022. Notice the jet orientation with respect to the Sierra. Heavy snow possible. This might qualify as a weak AR.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 11/3-11/8.

Forecast radar/satellite valid 11/3-11/8, Meteorologist Chris Tomer.

Forecast Snowfall

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/3-11/5.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/6-11/11.

My video forecast 11/3 with NEW updated snow totals 11/6-11/11:

Three storm combo early November

Post author By christomer
Post date November 2, 2022
Categories In Exercise, Forecasting, Hiking/Mountaineering, La Nina, Meteorology, Skiing, Snow

Tomer’s Take:

Three different storm systems are lined-up between 11/2-11/10.
Storm #1 is currently sliding south through CA and will take a southern track benefitting the southern tier of the Rockies.
Storm #2 takes a more central/north track favoring the Central and Northern Rockies.
Storm #3 is similar to storm #2. Big snow totals are possible with both because of more favorable orographics and track.

Current Setup

Snow is falling across the Sierra with storm #1.

Below is the Red Cliffs cam at Kirkwood.

Below is the Alpine Peak cam at Palisades Tahoe.

Palisades Tahoe, CA live Alpine Peak cam.

Infrared/visible satellite shows the storm track and three different low pressure systems riding the flow.

Infrared/visible satellite 10:15am 11/2/2022.

November 2-10

Forecast jet stream flow valid 11/4/2022.

Forecast jet stream flow valid 11/5/2022. The orientation of the jet is more favorable for orographics. In fact, this is technically a moderate-strong Atmospheric River (AR) setup for the PNW/BC. Some of that moisture gets thrown into the interior Rockies generating big snow totals.

Forecast jet stream flow valid 11/6/2022.

Forecast jet stream flow valid 11/7/2022.

Atmospheric River (AR)

A brief moderate-strong AR occurs late 11/3-11/5. This produces copious amounts of liquid/snow for the PNW/BC. Below is forecast Integrated Water Vapor Transport (IVT).

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 11/2-11/7.

Forecast Snowfall

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/2-11/5.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/6-11/10.

My forecast video 11/2:

Three storm combo early November

Post author By christomer
Post date November 1, 2022
Categories In Exercise, Forecasting, Hiking/Mountaineering, La Nina, Meteorology, Skiing, Snow
6 Comments on Three storm combo early November

Tomer’s Take:

Now it looks like three storm systems are lined-up between 11/1-11/10.
This includes a brief atmospheric river for the PNW between 11/3-11/4.
Storm #1 drops south through CA and favors southern tier of the Rockies.
Storm #2 stays further north but might drop far enough south to hit CA’s Sierra.
Storm #3 takes a similar track to Storm #2.

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the storm track and three different storm systems lined-up across the north Pacific. Orange/red = drier air aloft.

November 1-10

Below are forecast jet stream flows valid 11/3-11/6. Storm #1 takes a southern track with less than optimal orographics for CA. Storm #2 and Storm #3 offer a better mix of track and wind. They could deliver big totals.

Forecast Jet Stream flow valid 11/3/2022
Forecast Jet Stream flow valid 11/4/2022
Forecast Jet Stream flow valid 11/5/2022
Forecast Jet Stream flow valid 11/6/2022

Brief Atmospheric River (AR)

This is brief but possible 11/3-11/4 in the PNW. Below is forecast Integrated Water Vapor Transport (IVT) valid 11/3-11/5. Notice it’s pointed directly at the PNW.

Forecast IVT Plumes.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 11/1-11/6.

Forecast Snowfall

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/1-11/4.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/5-11/9.

My forecast video 11/1:

Life change: Moving on from Daybreak

Post author By christomer
Post date October 31, 2022
Categories In Forecasting
107 Comments on Life change: Moving on from Daybreak

It’s time for a change. I’ve worked at KDVR/KWGN-TV for 18 years. I’ve spent 10+ of those years waking up at 2:30am working a mix of Channel 2’s Daybreak and FOX-31’s Good Day Colorado.

Most people say to me, “I don’t know how you work those hours.” I don’t either but I’ve enjoyed it! I’m used to alpine starts for mountaineering, but doing it 5 days per week (or more) is exhausting and unhealthy. It’s time to close this chapter of my life.

What’s next? My last day on Daybreak is this Thursday November 3. On January 3, 2023 I’ll be moving full-time to Great Day Colorado (9-10am M-F) as co-host and working with a fantastic team. I’ll also have additional weather and lifestyle reporting responsibilities on the show. In the interim, I’ll be assisting the weather team by working afternoon/evenings through November and December.

The decision has been stressful, but I’ve had incredible support from my wife Leanne, close friends, and family.

I’m grateful to the station for this new opportunity. I always say it’s the people that make the difference in this business. I’ve made friends that will last a lifetime.

See you on the summit! Chris

This is my favorite promo of the last 10+ years. The creative service team did a great job.

Some fun times over the years –>

With Lou Ferrigno
Dkembe Mutombo 2016?
Daybreak Team 2016
Filling out NCAA brackets with Tom Green
With Tom Wopat
The early days on Good Day Colorado with Rob Marshall and Ken Clark
Katie Orth, Ken Clark, and Chris Parente, Daybreak Team 2022
With Marie Osmond
Weather Team 2020
Circa 2006
Daybreak Team 2017?
Wedding June 2019 with Leanne Tomer and Ernie Bjorkman
Snowmobiling with good friend John Williams in Grand Lake
Weather team 2018?
With Dr Oz
Weather team 2019?
Snowy morning in Denver
Halloween as Willy Wonka
Denver meteorologists at ski luncheon
Quandary Peak climb with Daybreak crew
With great friends Maia and Todd Brusseau
Great friends at my wedding
Andrea Sansone and Andrew Hamilton
Daybreak team 2018
Daybreak team 2022
Leanne at the green screen
With Dale Atkins of Alpine Rescue Team
KDVR/KWGN Creative Service professionals
Daybreak team 2020
With Donald Cerrone
Bernie the mascot
Weather team 2017

New ski atlas: Backcountry Skiing Cameron Pass

Post author By christomer
Post date October 31, 2022
Categories In Exercise, Forecasting, Hiking/Mountaineering, Meteorology, Skiing, Snow

Below you’ll find a short interview with author and friend Rodney Ley about his new book.
Book release event: Fort Collins, Thursday November 3, On the Edge Tuning ski shop.
Book is now available from Beacon Guidebooks.

“This book is the culmination of 50 years of skiing on Cameron Pass, a place I am deeply passionate about.” – Rodney Ley, Author

Jim Davidson is a longtime friend of Rodney Ley and also a backcountry skier, “I’ve been fortunate to follow Rodney’s ski tracks around for a few decades, and I’ve learned so much from him about Cameron Pass. Now, lucky readers of his authoritative ski atlas can absorb and apply all this hard-won backcountry wisdom.”

A Long History

Rodney, how long have you been skiing the Cameron Pass zone?

“I’ve been skiing up there since December 1972, when I took some old borrowed wooden X-C skis up Poudre Canyon to where the road ended at the time (Big South Trail) and skied up the then-gravel road to Chambers Lake.”

What does this new book mean to you?

“Myself and others had been pondering the idea of documenting and preserving the ski runs and background history now for several years. When Beacon Guidebooks approached me about a year ago to author their Cameron Pass Atlas I was finally able to work up the courage to proceed. Beacon Guidebooks has a track record of outstanding ski atlases and maps. www.beaconguidebooks.com (they have a “press section” on their site.)

I discovered right away it was a labor of love—my passion for maps, history, and supporting the backcountry ski community were all fed by this work. I reached out to the other folks I knew who had been working on this idea to get their buy-in (everyone was super supportive!), I consulted with the Diamond Peaks Ski Patrol, and now the Colorado Mountain School (who have the “education” permit for the State Forest State Park). Everyone was on board.

I had the experiences to draw on. I founded the Never Summer Nordic Ski Yurt system in 1985 (sold in 1992), was the Avalanche Observer for the Colorado Avalanche Information Center (1986-1992), and taught nearly every type of backcountry summer and winter activity on the pass as the director of the CSU Outdoor Program for thirty years.

I don’t think it’s bragging to say I know as much about the skiing and avalanches on Cameron Pass as anyone.”

Do you discuss weather/climate?

“Yes, we have a significant section on the Avalanche Terrain Evaluation Scale (ATES) which of course involves weather. If you aren’t familiar you can look at: https://avysavvy.avalanche.ca/en-ca/the-avalanche-terrain-exposure-scale

Each sector has a discussion of prevailing winds, snowpack types, etc. and rates the complexity of the weather vis-a-vis avalanche. The publisher, Andy Sovick, is one of the few book makers who actively use this scale for evaluating avalanche danger (of which there is plenty on Cameron Pass).

As a side note, I’ve been told that the Colorado Avalanche Information Center is going to re-draw the Front Range forecast zones into 6-7 new sub-sectors. (BTW: that might make an interesting blog story as well.) I’ve always told the CAIC folks that “Cameron Pass is different”, we really don’t fit the Front Range forecast zone very well, nor the Steamboat/Flattops. Now it appears we will be getting our own “north Front Range” zone—really cool. “

Jim Davidson and Rodney Ley at one of their Cameron Pass whiskey caches. Video by Andy Nelson.

Don’t miss Book Release Party on November 3!

Two storm combo early November

Post author By christomer
Post date October 31, 2022
Categories In Exercise, Forecasting, Hiking/Mountaineering, La Nina, Meteorology, Skiing, Snow

Tomer’s Take:

Two storm systems are lined-up 11/1-11/8 for the West.
Storm #1 takes a deep southern track 11/1-11/4 favoring southern tier of the Rockies.
Storm #2 takes a northern track 11/5-11/8 favoring northern tier of the Rockies. I like the way this pattern looks at this time. Big snow totals are possible.

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the storm track and two storm systems lined-up over the north Pacific. The first low pressure dislodges the high pressure between 11/1-11/4, drops south through California, then takes a deep southern track. Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Storm #1

10/31-11/4. Forecast jet stream flow reveals important characteristics affecting California snowfall. The trough is positive tilt, it’s fast, and orographics are not optimal.

Forecast jet stream flow valid 11/4/2022. The low takes a deep southern track favoring southern UT, southern CO. The flow is not optimal for northern NM.

Storm #2

11/5-11/8. Forecast jet stream flow valid 11/5/2022. I like the way this looks. The 2nd storm system might be the winner. As storm #1 moves east, the residual jet flow reloads with a jet streak. And, most importantly the orientation is WNW. This could deliver big totals to the northern tier of the Intermountain West.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 10/31-11/5.

Forecast Snowfall

Forecast snow totals (inches) between 10/31-11/4.

Forecast snow totals (inches) between 11/5-11/8.

My forecast video 10/31.

Mountain Weather update 10/30

Post author By christomer
Post date October 30, 2022
Categories In Exercise, Forecasting, Hiking/Mountaineering, La Nina, Meteorology, Skiing, Snow

Tomer’s Take:

Current snow bullseye through 10/31: PNW, BC, Banff.
The pattern changes and a trough dives south into CA and Intermountain West 11/1-11/7.
Low pressure now looks to move quickly through CA with sub-optimal orographics then take a southern track and deliver snow to the southern tier of Rockies.
A 2nd low pressure hits the PNW and northern tier of the Rockies 11/5-11/7 with snow.

Current Setup

Infrared satellite shows the storm track nailing the PNW, BC, and Banff. Western high pressure gets dislodged between 11/1-11/7.

We’ve had two October snowstorms in Colorado. My friend Gary Fondl was out making turns:

View this post on Instagram

A post shared by Gary Fondl (@friscopowderaddict)

11/1-11/7

A large trough replaces high pressure across the West. The low moves quickly through CA and then takes a southern track across the southern tier of the Rockies benefitting parts of UT, CO, AZ, and NM. But, in CA the orographic are not optimal. The eventual track of the low will determine how much snow falls in UT, CO, AZ, and NM.

Forecast jet stream flow valid 11/3/2022. Notice the positive tilt over CA.

Forecast jet stream flow valid 11/4/2022.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 10/30-11/4.

Forecast Snowfall

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 10/30-10/31.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/1-11/7.

My forecast video 10/30:

Early November storm track and California

Post author By christomer
Post date October 29, 2022
Categories In Exercise, Forecasting, Hiking/Mountaineering, La Nina, Meteorology, Skiing, Snow

Tomer’s Take:

Current bullseye is PNW, BC, and Banff through 10/31.
That storm system then drops south into CA and southern tier 11/1-11/6.
Track and wind field might not be suitable for blockbuster CA snowfall.
Track has potential to dig too far south.
Storm system affects ID, UT, AZ, NM, CO, and WY 11/1-11/6. Snow amounts decrease the further south the main storm tracks.

Current Setup

Infrared satellite shows the storm track and large low pressure nailing AK, BC, PNW, and BC. This trough will dislodge the high pressure currently sitting across the West between 11/1-11/6.

11/1-11/6

The forecast jet stream pattern during this period is not optimal for maximum orographics in CA.

Forecast jet stream valid 11/4. Notice how far south the low tracks. It might cut itself off from the flow by 11/5.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 10/29-11/3.

Forecast radar/satellite valid 10/29-11/3, Meteorologist Chris Tomer.

Forecast Snowfall

Forecast snowfall totals (inches) valid 10/29-10/31.

Forecast snowfall totals (inches) valid 11/1-11/6. The further south the low tracks the lower the snowfall totals for the southern tier.

My forecast video 10/29:

Snow forecast next 8 days

Post author By christomer
Post date October 28, 2022
Categories In Exercise, Forecasting, Hiking/Mountaineering, La Nina, Meteorology, Skiing, Snow
2 Comments on Snow forecast next 8 days

Tomer’s Take:

Next storm system hits the West 11/1-11/6 and could include California. (Until then the PNW/BC/Banff are the bullseyes for best snow).
Questions loom: How far south and west will this trough dig? Will upper-level winds be suitable for orographic snowfall? This will determine how much snow CA’s Sierra receive.
And will this turn into a major southern track low for the southern Rockies?

Current Setup

Visible satellite shows the current storm track and low pressure systems lined-up in the north Pacific. The west will have to endure a few days of solid high pressure.

11/1-11/6

Data suggest a large trough of low pressure across the West. I’m not sold on blockbuster snow totals for CA yet. Will it squarely hit California? Will the wind direction be suitable for orographic snowfall? Will this become a strong southern track low?

Forecast jet stream position is amplified and impressive on 11/3. This position would generate very strong mountain-top wind. But, will this be suitable for orographic snowfall?

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 10/29-11/1.

Forecast radar/satellite valid 10/29-11/1, Meteorologist Chris Tomer.

Forecast Snowfall

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 10/28-10/31.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/1-11/6.

My forecast video 10/28:

Active early November pattern including California

Post author By christomer
Post date October 27, 2022
Categories In Exercise, Forecasting, Hiking/Mountaineering, La Nina, Meteorology, Skiing, Snow
2 Comments on Active early November pattern including California

Tomer’s Take:

High pressure rebuilds for a few days (10/28-10/31) across the West.
The next trough digs further south/west 11/1-11/5 and looks to include California.
This could mean snow, colder temps, and very strong wind across the West.

Current Setup

Visible satellite shows additional low pressure systems lined-up in the north Pacific. They will help build and then potentially cuts-off a trough of low pressure over California on/around 11/3/2022.