Tomer’s Take:
- Now it looks like three storm systems are lined-up between 11/1-11/10.
- This includes a brief atmospheric river for the PNW between 11/3-11/4.
- Storm #1 drops south through CA and favors southern tier of the Rockies.
- Storm #2 stays further north but might drop far enough south to hit CA’s Sierra.
- Storm #3 takes a similar track to Storm #2.
Current Setup
Water vapor satellite shows the storm track and three different storm systems lined-up across the north Pacific. Orange/red = drier air aloft.
November 1-10
Below are forecast jet stream flows valid 11/3-11/6. Storm #1 takes a southern track with less than optimal orographics for CA. Storm #2 and Storm #3 offer a better mix of track and wind. They could deliver big totals.
Brief Atmospheric River (AR)
This is brief but possible 11/3-11/4 in the PNW. Below is forecast Integrated Water Vapor Transport (IVT) valid 11/3-11/5. Notice it’s pointed directly at the PNW.
Forecast IVT Plumes.
Forecast Timing
Forecast radar/satellite valid 11/1-11/6.
Forecast Snowfall
Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/1-11/4.
Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/5-11/9.
My forecast video 11/1:
Sweet ,PNW , Banff/Sunshine Stats for Nov 1, 2022
OVERNIGHT:- 2.8 Inches
LAST 24 HOURS:- 2.8 Inches
LAST 7 DAYS: – 22 Inches
🥶 And the hits just keep on rolling 🎿
Excellent, Jim! Thanks for the update. Chris
Hey Chris love your blog. Nice to find a forecaster who cares about the same thing – pow! I’m a long time CB resident (40+years) who ski’s 100+ days per year. Eight years ago decided that CB snow was just not good enough so have been spending winters in Utah skiing LCC and loving it. Thus I wanted to point out that the models you are using overcook Park City snowfall. PC never ever get as much snow as BCC & LCC. It’s orographics and geological. Jim Steenburgh a U of U professor has a great book about snow in different parts of the world and what causes it.
“Greatest Snow on Earth” (not just Utah). Thank you for the work! Doc.
Thanks, Doc! Appreciate you following me here. I’ve read professor Steenburghs’ book. What a difference between PC and others. Chris
Chris, will you continue this report after you leave Daybreak?
Yes! I’ll continue with my mountain weather forecasts, blog, and YouTube channel. Chris