Three more AR surges through 1/12

Tomer’s Take: I’m tracking three moderate intensity atmospheric river (AR) surges through 1/12. Biggest totals occur in CA, WA, OR, BC.

Current Setup

Infrared satellite shows the Pineapple Express and low pressure systems lined-up.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 1/12 shows a choppy jet stream with well-defined dips and ridges. This pattern favors the West Coast for biggest snow totals with less through the interior Rockies.

Atmospheric River

The latest GEFS IVT forecast by latitude shows three additional moderate intensity AR surges through 1/12. Beyond, there are weaker AR surges through 1/19. The surges occur 1/4-1/5, 1/8, 1/10.

I continue to worry about catastrophic flooding at the lower elevations of Northern California through 1/12 with potentially 15-20 inches of additional rainfall.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 1/3-1/8.

Forecast totals

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/3-1/5.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/6-1/12.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/3-1/12. The bulk of this snow occurs 1/4-1/5 and with a possible coastal storm system on/about 1/12.