Tomer’s Take: The final atmospheric river (AR) surge is underway with big totals across the West. What happens after? A transition occurs with a high pressure ridge building.
My forecast video 1/13:
Infrared satellite shows the Pineapple Express and remaining two areas of low pressure.
Forecast jet stream valid 1/22. Notice the amplitude and high pressure ridging across the West Coast.
Below is the EPS forecast atmospheric pressure anomalies in the middle of the atmosphere valid late 1/27. This forecast pattern has remained consistent the last few days.
If this occurs, then a drier period is likely for parts of the West.
There is disagreement in this pattern. The GFS/GEFS forecast model(s) doesn’t develop this large ridge. It keeps the PNA negative throughout late January. If that occurs then the pattern remains active for the Intermountain West.
What happens after 1/28? I believe the pattern turns more active for the West in February.
La Nina is fading. The next stop is Neutral then data points towards El Nino by Summer and Fall.
Forecast radar/satellite valid 1/13-1/18.
Forecast snow totals valid 1/13-1/15.
Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/16-1/22.
Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/13-1/22. Most of this occurs 1/19-1/20.