Early November storm track and California

Tomer’s Take:

  • Current bullseye is PNW, BC, and Banff through 10/31.
  • That storm system then drops south into CA and southern tier 11/1-11/6.
  • Track and wind field might not be suitable for blockbuster CA snowfall.
  • Track has potential to dig too far south.
  • Storm system affects ID, UT, AZ, NM, CO, and WY 11/1-11/6. Snow amounts decrease the further south the main storm tracks.

Current Setup

Infrared satellite shows the storm track and large low pressure nailing AK, BC, PNW, and BC. This trough will dislodge the high pressure currently sitting across the West between 11/1-11/6.

Infrared satellite and storm track 7:45am 11/29/2022.

11/1-11/6

The forecast jet stream pattern during this period is not optimal for maximum orographics in CA.

Forecast jet stream flow valid 11/3/2022.

Forecast jet stream valid 11/4. Notice how far south the low tracks. It might cut itself off from the flow by 11/5.

Forecast jet stream flow valid 11/4/2022.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 10/29-11/3.

Forecast radar/satellite valid 10/29-11/3, Meteorologist Chris Tomer.

Forecast Snowfall

Forecast snowfall totals (inches) valid 10/29-10/31.

Forecast snowfall totals (inches) valid 10/29-10/31.

Forecast snowfall totals (inches) valid 11/1-11/6. The further south the low tracks the lower the snowfall totals for the southern tier.

Forecast snowfall totals (inches) valid 11/1-11/6.

My forecast video 10/29: