Tomer’s Take

• 2-3 more storm systems lined-up for the West.
• Largest storm system and possible merger on New Year’s Eve/Day.
• Cold blast following this final storm system.

The latest infrared satellite reveals the storm track with storm systems lined-up.

Let’s look at the final storm systems of this cycle. There are two moving pieces.

• Pacific Northwest low pressure & cold front
• Desert Southwest low pressure

> If the two merge over the 4-Corners then a much larger storm system emerges between New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day for UT, NM, CO, ID, MT, and WY.

>If the two don’t merge than two smaller waves of snow move through UT, NM, CO, ID, MT, and WY.

Here’s the forecast jet stream setup on 12/31/2021:

This setup delivers a surge of strong wind to the Intermountain West on 12/30-12/31. My forecast wind gusts on select Colorado 14ers:

Snow Forecast

Forecast totals 12/27-1/2:

Drilling down, here’s my snow plume forecast for Crested Butte, CO:

• If this verifies, then Crested Butte storm cycle grand totals from 12/23-1/2 will hover around 85″.

One more, Jackson Hole, WY:

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

Tomer’s Take

• 3-5 additional storm systems lined-up through 1/2/2022 for the West.
• Major additional snow totals measured in feet in CA, UT, WY, CO.
• 50-110mph wind gusts 12/26 across UT, CO, WY.
• Uncertainty New Year’s Eve into New Year’s Day with potential major storm system merger over UT, WY, CO.

Here’s the water vapor satellite image with storm track. Storm systems are lined-up through 1/1/2022.

Strong wind likely in UT, WY, CO on 12/26. Will see a spike 12/30 and again 1/1-1/2 depending on storm system(s) merger potential.

For more analysis, snow forecast, and snow plumes please watch my forecast video:

Tomer’s Take

• Additional big powder days ahead through 1/1/2022 for West.
• Major trough of low pressure remains in position over the eastern Pacific located just off the West Coast.
• Jet stream remains in prime position for the West through 1/1/2022.
• Big wind 50-100mph hits the snowpack of UT, WY, and CO on 12/26.
• Storm cycle might end as a NW flow type pattern on 1/1/2022 for UT, WY, MT, CO.
• 41″ in 48 hours at Crested Butte, CO. 2-3 more storm systems to go. Temps will drop 10-15 degrees going forward in Colorado.
• 33″ in 48 hours at Wolf Creek, CO. Same ingredients as Crested Butte with additional storm systems and colder air.

You can see the major dip in the jet stream and trough of low pressure on this infrared satellite image.

A 200mph jet streak delivers the next storm system in this cycle to CA, ID, UT, CO, WY 12/25-12/26:

Big wind coming to Utah, Colorado, Wyoming 12/26. Here’s my forecast for select 14ers in Colorado:

How much additional snow through 1/1/2022?

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

Tomer’s Take

• The first large storm system in the series is on track with big totals across the West.
• Cycle duration lasts through 1/1/2022.
• Widespread feet of grand total accumulation in the Wasatch, Tetons, and Western Slope ski areas of Colorado.
• Major avalanche cycle in the backcountry.
• Overall biggest grand totals through 1/1/2022 at Wolf Creek, Silverton, Telluride, Purgatory, Alta, Snowbird, Jackson Hole, Grand Targhee, and Crested Butte.

20″ in 24 hours at Crested Butte, CO:

A huge trough of low pressure is the key. You can see it on the water vapor satellite below. It’s taking up most of the eastern Pacific basin located off the West Coast. Pressures are running at least 3 standard deviations below the 30-year average.

The pattern stays amplified with major jet stream support through 1/1/2022.

Snow Forecast

How much additional snow will fall through 1/1/2022 across the Intermountain West?

Grand totals through 1/1/2022:

Drilling down, here’s my snow plume forecast for Alta, UT:

And, Crested Butte, CO:

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

Tomer’s Take

• The key timeframe is 12/23-1/1 for this major storm cycle.
• 3-5 different storm systems are lined-up for CA, UT, ID, MT, WY, and CO.
• Widespread grand totals by 1/1 measured in feet for the Sierra, Tetons, Wasatch, and Western Slope ski areas of Colorado.
• Major avalanche cycle for the backcountry.
• Wolf Creek, CO appears to have the biggest potential with 70 inches (100″ not out of the question with proper T/W profile).
• Alta, UT, Silverton, CO, and Crested Butte, CO are not far behind.

For this update, let’s drill down to Utah/Colorado region. Here are my grand totals through 1/1/2022.

My snow plume for Crested Butte, CO:

Tomer’s Take

• Major storm cycle through 12/31 with 4-5 different storm systems rotating through California into UT, ID, MT, WY, and CO.
• Grand totals will be in feet.
• Major avalanche cycle in the backcountry if this verifies.

Look at the size of the trough developing off the West Coast. It’s huge and will run 3+ standard deviations from the 30 year average. Energy will rotate through the trough and then into CA and the Interior West.

Look at the storm track through Christmas. Perfect formation for big Western snow.

The storm track stays active across the West through 1/1/2022.

Snow Forecast

Let’s look at my snow forecast in two time periods.

12/22-12/26:

12/27-12/31:

Joe B requested a snow plume for Steamboat, CO:

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

Tomer’s Take

• Data is pointing towards a major storm cycle setting up from 12/23-1/1 across the West.
• 3-5 large storm systems possible.
• All storm systems will rotate through a major trough of low pressure and prolonged dip in the jet stream.
• Atmospheric pressures could run 3+ standard deviations below the 30-year average into 1/1/2022.
• Feet of accumulation and high avalanche cycle.

Let’s first look at the setup on water vapor satellite. The red colors represent drier air aloft; whites and blues are moisture aloft. Notice the big dip in the storm track developing off the West Coast. This is the key to the next 10 days.

The jet stream takes a prolonged dip across the West. This guides the snow into the Interior Rockies through 1/1/2022.

Forecast jet stream on 12/25:

Forecast jet stream on 1/1/2022:

Snow Forecast

Let’s look at my snow totals in two time periods.

12/21-12/23:

12/24-12/28:

Drilling down, here’s my snow plume forecast for Snowbird, UT:

This scenario would be similar for Alta, Jackson Hole, Grand Targhee, Silverton, and Wolf Creek.

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

Tomer’s Take

• Active storm track with 2-3 different storm systems through 12/26 for the West.
• California gets a weak to moderate intensity atmospheric river. Several feet of accumulation by 12/26 at mid-mountain elevations and higher.
• Widespread 1-2 foot totals at UT, WY, ID, and CO ski areas by 12/26.

Current setup: Notice the large low pressure (red low) just off the West Coast. This trough of low pressure will intensify (deepen). All the other low pressures will then rotate around the high into this trough and hit the West Coast and later the Interior Rockies through 12/26.

On Christmas, a large trough of low atmospheric pressure dominates the West.

Snow Forecast

Let’s look at my snowfall forecast in two-timeframes.

12/20-12/22:

12/23-12/26:

• In Colorado, I like the Western Slope ski areas for the biggest totals.
• In California, snow levels will rise to 5,000ft. So the higher the better for powder.
• In Utah’s Wasatch, you might have new snow each day from the 12/23-12/26 for big grand totals.

Let’s drill down, here’s my snow plume forecast for Crested Butte, CO.

For more analysis please watch my forecast video: