Merger possible New Year’s Eve

Tomer’s Take

  • 2-3 additional storm systems lined-up through 1/2/2022 for the West.
  • Merger possible between two storm systems near the 4-Corners 12/31-1/1. This would generate a larger, stronger storm system for UT, CO, NM, WY.
  • My forecast is based on at least a partial merger.
  • Crested Butte just hit 60″ in the last 5 days. I’m forecasting another 38″ by 1/2/2022. That equates to a storm cycle grand total of 98″. That’s in-line with the Bury the Butte storm cycle of 2017.
  • Palisades Tahoe is reporting 113″ of snow in the last 7 days. That equates to about 16 inches every single day.

The current setup on infrared satellite shows the active storm track reaching back into the Pacific basin. I marked the two key storm systems involved in the potential merger.

Infrared satellite with storm track 12/28/2021 5am.

Merger

A Pacific low pressure and cold front could merge with a low pressure moving in the from the desert southwest. There’s plenty of jet stream support to coddle this merger.

Jet stream forecast valid 12/31/2021, GFS interpretation.

If this occurs then expect a surge in wind across the West as the jet stream translates through 12/30-12/31.

Forecast gusts (MPH).

Snow Forecast

Inches of total snow 12/28-1/2.

Drilling down, here’s my Steamboat snow plume forecast:

Inches of total snow.

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

2 thoughts on “Merger possible New Year’s Eve

  1. Mark Gardiner

    Chris,
    You said that you were surprised to see that Brighton had received more snow than Alta. This is not unprecedented when storm tracks produce a southwesterly flow. Big Cottonwood Canyon is favored in a southwesterly flow. Little Cottonwood is favored in a northwesterly flow, with lake effect enhancement.

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.