Major storm cycle for the West

Tomer’s Take

  • Data is pointing towards a major storm cycle setting up from 12/23-1/1 across the West.
  • 3-5 large storm systems possible.
  • All storm systems will rotate through a major trough of low pressure and prolonged dip in the jet stream.
  • Atmospheric pressures could run 3+ standard deviations below the 30-year average into 1/1/2022.
  • Feet of accumulation and high avalanche cycle.

Let’s first look at the setup on water vapor satellite. The red colors represent drier air aloft; whites and blues are moisture aloft. Notice the big dip in the storm track developing off the West Coast. This is the key to the next 10 days.

Water vapor satellite 12/21/2021 6am and storm track.

The jet stream takes a prolonged dip across the West. This guides the snow into the Interior Rockies through 1/1/2022.

Forecast jet stream on 12/25:

GFS interpretation.

Forecast jet stream on 1/1/2022:

GFS interpretation.

Snow Forecast

Let’s look at my snow totals in two time periods.

12/21-12/23:

Inches of snow 12/21-12/23.

12/24-12/28:

Inches of snow 12/24-12/28.

Drilling down, here’s my snow plume forecast for Snowbird, UT:

Inches of total snow through 12/30.

This scenario would be similar for Alta, Jackson Hole, Grand Targhee, Silverton, and Wolf Creek.

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

4 thoughts on “Major storm cycle for the West”

  1. Joe B

    Awesome stuff Chris! Can you include a Plume for Steamboat in one of your future posts? Headed there on the 29th.

    Happy Holidays!

  2. Randall

    Greetings from Aspen! The snow train is full steam ahead! You must be in heaven forecasting all those flakes! Your forecasting efforts are much appreciated.

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