What does 2023 hold?

Tomer’s Take: 2023 features a continuation of the atmospheric river through 1/9. A moderate level intensity moisture surge occurs on 1/4-1/5 in CA, OR, WA. The jet becomes choppy through UT, WY, and CO on/after 1/4 with some ridge stress cutting down on snow totals.

My forecast video 1/1:

Current Setup

Infrared satellite shows the Pineapple Express and low pressure systems lined-up. The big low in the north Pacific hits the west coast 1/4-1/5.

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 1/10. Notice how choppy the jet becomes with some ridge stress through UT, WY, CO.

Legend: Brighter colors represent stronger wind speeds.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 1/1-1/6.

Forecast Totals

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/1-1/3.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/4-1/10.

Forecast snow timeline for the Wasatch:

  • 1/1: 13″
  • 1/2: 3″
  • 1/3: 3″
  • 1/4: 0″
  • 1/5: 2″
  • 1/6: 5″
  • 1/7: 0″
  • 1/8: 0″
  • 1/9: 0″
  • 1/10: 0″

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 1/2-1/9.

12 thoughts on “What does 2023 hold?”

  1. Rob Suminsby

    Chris – great insight as always. But…and I can’t be the only one wondering this…can you explain what you mean by “ridge stress”?

    1. christomer Post author

      Thanks, Rob! Instead of the jet running neatly west-to-east, on/after 1/4 its starts to get choppy. This disrupts the atmospheric river flow into UT, WY, CO, NM.

  2. Belknap Brian

    We are in Midway UT
    Since yesterday afternoon we have had apox 2.5’ in the last 12 hours

  3. Jeff Goodski

    Any thoughts on long term path of the atmospheric rivers? Historically do they favor more “southern” states like CA/UT/CO more than WA/ID/MT? Does the path tend to vary north/south significantly over time? Thanks for your blog and insights!

  4. christomer Post author

    Hi Jeff, it looks like CA is still favored after 1/10 for a strong jet, but there isn’t as much AR moisture in the flow after 1/10. So, we might be looking at just standard low pressure systems (with weak AR contribution). AR’s tend to favor CA, OR, WA with less impact through the interior Rockies unless you have a neat west-to-east jet and higher intensity AR moisture push. Chris

  7. Jon Morrissey

    Hi Chris,
    I love your site….it’s the best!
    What happened to the 40 inch forecast for Crested Butte?
    Jon

    1. christomer Post author

      Thanks, Jon! One thing you’ll find with mountain weather is how quickly things can change with only slight changes in wind vectors. Chris

Comments are closed.