Update: Ultra Season – Managing the Monsoon

Tomer’s Take: The Monsoon is late and weak. Moisture is slowly increasing across the desert southwest. Moisture increases in Colorado on 7/26 and ramps up into the first week of August. AZ, NM, NV, WY, UT, CO can all expect an increase in thunderstorms. The biggest Monsoon surge of the season so far is on tap for August 1-3.

Ultra Season

Hardrock was hot and dry. I’m still working with a few different athletes as they attempt to break FKT’s across CO, WY, MT. So far the Monsoon has been minimal, but that’s about to change on 7/26.

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows where the moisture is aloft in the atmosphere. Notice the high pressure and clockwise rotation. It’s starting to entrain Monsoonal moisture and transport it into the desert Southwest.

Late, Weak Monsoon

Normally, Monsoon season runs July 1 – August 31. Atmospheric winds turn southerly transporting in new moisture from the Gulf and Pacific. This moisture hits the Four Corners in waves. Timing the moisture surges is the critical forecasting part. This makes thunderstorms more likely early and late.

Here Comes the Monsoon

For the first time, atmospheric winds turn favorable for Monsoonal moisture. Below is the EPS jet stream forecast valid 8/2/2023.

Below is a forecast timeline comparison. It’s a precipitable water percent of normal forecast. Green/Blue = 100-300% of normal. The first image is valid 7/31, and the second image is valid 8/2. The surge on 8/2 is more significant.

Below is the forecast relative humidity at about 10,000ft valid 8/3. Forecast moisture is deep.

Bottom Line

Expect moisture to increase across AZ, NM, UT, CO, NV, and WY on/after 7/26 through the first week of August.

This will increase the chances for afternoon thunderstorms with heavy rain, frequent lightning, and hail. The storms could develop before Noon and last late into the night.

This will create smaller weather windows.