Rapid Snowmelt, Rich Moisture, Rain/Thunderstorm Pattern

Tomer’s Take: A surge of warm air will kick the snowmelt into high gear in UT, WY, CO through 5/24. I’m also forecasting a rich flow of moisture on Wednesday-Thursday this week with afternoon rain/t-storm chances each day.

Forecast Freezing Level

Wasatch Mountains, UT, Daily Max/Min:

5/15: 13600’/12800′

5/16: 13600’/13500′

5/17: 13600’/13000′

5/18: 13500’/13000′

5/19: 13600’/12800′

Colorado’s Central Mountains

5/15: 13800’/11800′

5/16: 14400’/12100′

5/17: 14600’/12500′

5/18: 13500’/12000′

5/19: 11800’/11700′

Teton Range, WY:

5/15: 12800’/11800′

5/16: 12800’/12000′

5/17: 13000’/11800′

5/18: 13100’/12100′

5/19: 13800’/12600′

Current Snowpack

Wyoming, Snow-water-equivalent percentage of median:

Colorado, Snow-water-equivalent percentage of median:

Utah, Snow-water-equivalent percentage of median:

Forecast Pattern

Forecast jet stream valid 5/18. Notice the small jet wind sliding through WY, CO. That’s a backdoor front that will focus extra moisture over the Intermountain West. I’m forecasting a higher chance for afternoon rain/t-storms on Wednesday-Thursday-Friday in MT, UT, CO, NM, WY.

Rich Moisture

Forecast precipitable water values run high on Wednesday-Thursday. Percentage of normal values increase to 200% of normal over MN, AZ, southern UT, southern CO.

This extra moisture in the atmosphere will fuel afternoon rain/t-storms each day.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 5/15-5/20. Afternoon rain/t-storms likely each day – especially Wednesday-Thursday-Friday.

Forecast Snow Totals