Mountain Weather update 10/30

Tomer’s Take:

  • Current snow bullseye through 10/31: PNW, BC, Banff.
  • The pattern changes and a trough dives south into CA and Intermountain West 11/1-11/7.
  • Low pressure now looks to move quickly through CA with sub-optimal orographics then take a southern track and deliver snow to the southern tier of Rockies.
  • A 2nd low pressure hits the PNW and northern tier of the Rockies 11/5-11/7 with snow.

Current Setup

Infrared satellite shows the storm track nailing the PNW, BC, and Banff. Western high pressure gets dislodged between 11/1-11/7.

Infrared satellite and storm track, 7:45am 10/30/2022.

We’ve had two October snowstorms in Colorado. My friend Gary Fondl was out making turns:

11/1-11/7

A large trough replaces high pressure across the West. The low moves quickly through CA and then takes a southern track across the southern tier of the Rockies benefitting parts of UT, CO, AZ, and NM. But, in CA the orographic are not optimal. The eventual track of the low will determine how much snow falls in UT, CO, AZ, and NM.

Forecast jet stream flow valid 11/3/2022. Notice the positive tilt over CA.

Forecast jet stream flow valid 11/3/2022.

Forecast jet stream flow valid 11/4/2022.

Forecast jet stream flow valid 11/4/2022.

Forecast Timing

Forecast radar/satellite valid 10/30-11/4.

Forecast radar/satellite valid 10/30-11/4.

Forecast Snowfall

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 10/30-10/31.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 10/30-10/31.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/1-11/7.

Forecast snow totals (inches) valid 11/1-11/7.

My forecast video 10/30: