Monsoon done for the season in Colorado with one wrinkle

Tomer’s Take:

  • Southerly flow is drying up and Monsoon appears done for the season in Colorado.
  • Isolated afternoon mountain t-storms are still possible at times. But, these t-storms will be fewer, weaker, and lack the torrential rain we experienced in July and most of August.
  • Monsoon Season in Colorado normally runs July-August.
  • This season featured a robust Monsoon flow that started two weeks early.
  • This opens the door for big Fall projects in the Mountains of Colorado.
  • I’m forecasting an abnormally warm and dry Fall season.
  • One wrinkle to keep in mind: An active end to Pacific hurricane season appears likely. The remnants of these hurricanes could move north and affect Colorado at times.

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows a complete change in the pattern. The current flow is not supportive of the Monsoon. The rich southerly flow has been turned off. Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Water vapor satellite, 8/29/2022 5am.

Total Summer Precipitation

90-day precipitation % of normal. The Monsoon nailed the Southern Mountains and certain parts of the Central and Northern Mountains. The Front Range and Eastern Plains ended up normal to drier than normal.


Mid-atmosphere humidity values are significantly drier most of this week (except 8/31).

Forecast relative humidity values valid 8/30/2022, EURO interpretation.

Early to mid September Outlook: Drier than normal. Monsoon is gone.