La Nina continues into Summer

Water temperatures in the Equatorial South Pacific are running about 1.0C colder than normal. The latest forecast calls for water temps to stay colder than normal into Summer – through June-July-August.

The blue bars in the graph below represent La Nina.

Latest ENSO Outlook, 3/14/2022.

Here’s a look at the model spread over time. We’ve been locked into La Nina since Summer 2020. The zero line represents ENSO-neutral.

Model spread over time.

Impact to the West

Through Summer: STATUS QUO

Typical La Nina impact to storm track.

Hail and Tornado risk tends to be higher March-May with La Nina.

ENSO Severe Weather historical probabilities.

Beyond Summer

What phase will we see for next Fall?

The odds remain highest (40-50%) for a Neutral Phase.

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