10/19 update: First big mountain snow of the season

Tomer’s Take:

• Pattern change remains on-track 10/22-10/24.
• A second low pressure system possible 10/26-10/28.
• Beneficiaries: PNW, BC, Banff, MT, ID, CO, WY, UT.
• Strong wind gusts likely 40-95mph 10/22-10/25.

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the big Western high pressure ridge and cut-off low pressure. This is called a Rex Block. What can change this? The parade of low pressure systems in the North Pacific running into Alaska/BC will help to dislodge this pattern setting the stage for Intermountain snow 10/22-10/24.

Pattern Change

The big high gets pushed west and is replaced by a big trough of low pressure 10/22-10/24. Below is the forecast mid-mountain atmospheric pressure anomalies valid 10/23.

Forecast Wind Gusts

Longs Peak	MPH
10/22	65
10/23	65
10/24	60
10/25	75

Crestone Peak	MPH
10/22	65
10/23	95
10/24	45
10/25	45

Kings Peak	MPH
10/22	60
10/23	40
10/24	35
10/25	45

Grand Teton	MPH
10/21	55
10/22	50
10/23	30
10/24	40
10/25	45

Forecast

Forecast radar/satellite valid 10pm Saturday 10/22:

Forecast 9am Sunday 10/23:

Forecast 6pm Sunday 10/23:

Forecast snow totals by late 10/24:

My forecast video for 10/19: