10/18 update: First big mountain snow of the season

Tomer’s Take:

  • Weekend mountain snow remains on track.
  • Timeline: 10/22-10/24.
  • Beneficiaries: PNW, Banff, ID, MT, WY, UT, CO.
  • Strong wind likely 40-85mph across the high peaks of UT, WY, CO.
  • Air temps drop 10-25 degrees.

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the parade of low pressure systems that will gradually erode/dislodge the large high pressure ridge. Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Water vapor satellite 4:30am 10/18/2022.

Pattern Change

Confidence continues to grow for a complete pattern change this weekend (10/22-10/24).

Below, here’s the forecast mid-atmosphere pressure anomalies valid 10/23.

Forecast mid-atmosphere pressure anomalies valid 10/23, EPS interpretation.

Forecast Wind Gusts

Let’s first talk forecast wind gusts 10/22-10/24.

Quandary PeakGusts
10/2240
10/2350
10/2450
Crestone PeakGusts
10/2260
10/2385
10/2460
Kings PeakGusts
10/2265
10/2335
10/2440

Forecast Snowfall

Here’s the future radar/satellite valid Saturday 10/22 @9pm.

Future radar/satellite valid 10/22 at 9pm.

Sunday 10/23 @5am:

Valid 10/23 at 5am.

Sunday 10/23 @6:15pm:

Valid 10/23 at 6:15pm.

Forecast snow totals (inches) 10/18-10/24:

Forecast snow totals (inches) 10/18-10/24.

My forecast video for 10/18:

6 thoughts on “10/18 update: First big mountain snow of the season”

  2. Jfones

    Let’s start building a base! I’m a little more optimistic this stronger La Nina will send the troughs a little further south than the previous two and give us more consistent snowfall. Fingers crossed!

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