Winter Forecast 2023-2024

Tomer’s Take: A Strong El Nino is likely with a screaming Subtropical Jet across the Southern Tier by January, February, March, April, and May 2024. I believe we’ll see a 30% El Nino Modoki contribution. This puts several major ski resorts on ‘The Bubble’. Atmospheric River (AR) setups are likely along with large East Coast storm storm systems.

My full forecast video:

13 thoughts on “Winter Forecast 2023-2024”

  1. Krista Hildebrandt

    Curious what the forecast looks like for France/Europe??? Last year was so bad for them…

    1. christomer Post author

      Hi Krista – Great question and I don’t know at the moment. The pattern that hit Greece and Libya was unprecedented with 3 years worth of rain in 72 hours. Chris

  2. skip butler

    Great prediction. I hope Big Sky can get normal snow fall or better. Last winter in Big Sky was so good. 🤘🫏🚠

  3. Trini Garza

    Impressive outline of the coming winter weather – hope it becomes a snowy reality for Colorado.

  4. bill nesbitt

    thanks Chris. I camped in Pitkin at about 9800 feet this weekend and the peaks around us especially to the east like Monarch Pass and majority of the Collegiate Peaks all had snow Saturday morning. Still sticking on Sunday. Thanks for your work product.

  6. Andy

    Thanks for the forecast/outlook Chris and the great work. I find that you are the best for forecasting and have followed you for years. Keep up the great work. It makes a huge difference for all of your snow chasers.

  7. Caver Dave

    Hi Chris,
    I really enjoyed your seasonal forecast. I was happy to see your excellent discussion of the Modoki el Nino. As a California skier, I really hope you are correct with your predictions of a screaming southern jet.
    Could you share your thoughts on the temperature gradient in the Pacific? As I understand it, the jet stream is a function of the difference in temperature between areas of the ocean, more than the total thermal energy in the el Nino zones, or in other areas. If the entire Pacific is well above normal temperatures this winter, will the el Nino zones high temperatures really have that dramatic effect?

    Caver Dave

    1. christomer Post author

      Hi Caver Dave –
      The temperature gradient is throughout the entire atmosphere but can be affected by El Nino/La Nino and other items. It’s just one variable but important to consider when forecasting the position of the Wintertime jet.
      Chris

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