Tomer’s Take:
- Pattern change remains on-track 10/22-10/24.
- Possible 2nd storm system with snow 10/26-10/28.
- Beneficiaries: PNW, BC, Banff, MT, ID, WY, UT, CO.
- Strong wind gusts UT, CO, WY 40-90mph between 10/22-10/24.
Current Setup
The pattern change comes from the two large low pressure systems over the Pacific. They will dislodge the high pressure ridge 10/22-10/24 and possibly 10/26-10/28. Red/orange = drier air aloft.
Forecast Wind Gusts
| Grand Teton | MPH |
| 10/21 | 60 |
| 10/22 | 50 |
| 10/23 | 30 |
| 10/24 | 40 |
| Quandary Peak | MPH |
| 10/22 | 45 |
| 10/23 | 50 |
| 10/24 | 45 |
| 10/25 | 30 |
| Crestone Needle | MPH |
| 10/22 | 70 |
| 10/23 | 90 |
| 10/24 | 30 |
| 10/25 | 35 |
Forecast
Forecast radar/satellite valid Saturday 10/22 @9pm.
Forecast radar/satellite valid Sunday 10/23 @6am.
Forecast radar/satellite valid Sunday 10/23 @9:15PM.
Forecast total snowfall (inches) between 10/20-10/24.
Possible 2nd Storm System
Valid 10/26-10/27. Notice the large trough across the West. Forecast mid-atmosphere pressure anomalies on 10/27.
My forecast video:
Hey Chris, thanks for the daily updates. Do your snow totals factor in potential lake effect for the Wasatch?
Thanks, Austin! Normally I don’t factor that in. Chris
60 YEARS – Your forecast is being followed with baited breath, it is the weekend of the “Calgary New & Used Ski Sale” organized by three volunteer groups in Calgary , Alberta one club being the Canadian Ski Patrol, we have $2M in merchindise and just need cold and snow to drive everyone into the arena 🎿 🌨
I hear you, Jim! Chris
This has the making of a bust storm for CO.
It’s not huge but it’s our first real storm system of the season. I think West and SW CO will do ok. Chris
What is the definition of a cut-off low? Also, what patterns favor south/central Idaho?
Hi Toby – It’s simply a low that’s cut-off from the main jet stream flow. It’s spinning alone. Chris
Of course we have to drive from Ft Collins to CB on Sunday!!! Ugh. I appreciate the details re timing. Maybe it’ll be a good day to visit some hot-springs along the way!!!
That’ll be a drive, Krista! Chris
Good tires, food and water and blankets. Ohhh, and watch out for Lone star and Florida plates.
Thanks, CW! Chris