Monsoon surge this week

Tomer’s Take:

• Two surges are lined-up.
• Peak surge in Colorado occurs 8/14-8/17. This is a medium intensity surge.
• A second smaller surge occurs 8/20-8/21. This coincides with the LT100 trail run in Leadville on 8/20.
• Monsoon surges make rain/t-storms more likely. Sometimes the precipitation can start before Noon and last late into the night.

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the southerly wind flow escorting this Monsoon surge north through AZ, UT, WY, and into CO. Red/orange colors = drier air aloft.

Forecast

Massive-Elbert Zone	AM	PM
8/15	10%	100%
8/16	30%	100%
8/17	10%	70%
8/18	Dry	50%
8/19	Dry	50%
8/20	Dry	90%
8/21	10%	80%

Specific forecast for 8/20 LT100 run:

Elbert-Massive Zone	5am	10am	Noon	5pm	9pm
Precip Chance 8/20	0%	20%	90%	90%	40%

Bonus: Longs Peak

Longs Peak	AM	PM
8/15	20%	100%
8/16	30%	60%
8/17	Dry	60%
8/18	Dry	60%
8/19	Dry	70%
8/20	Dry	90%
8/21	10%	90%

Total Precipitation

This is total rainfall by the night of 8/20. 1-3+ inches possible in the mountains south of I-70. The San Juan Mountains could see flash flooding.

Here’s my 8/14 mountain weather forecast video: