Rain chances this week in Colorado

Tomer’s Take:

• Two Monsoon surges are on Colorado’s horizon.
• The first is a medium intensity surge 8/15-8/17.
• The second is a small surge 8/20-8/22.
• The LT100 run takes place on 8/20.
• In Colorado, the seasonal Monsoon normally runs July through August.

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows the Monsoon plume moving north through New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, and Colorado. Red/orange colors = drier air aloft.

The San Miguel County Sheriff says the Bridal Veil area and Black Bear Pass remain closed due to recent flash flooding and rockfall.

Flash Flood Potential

Excessive Rainfall Outlook valid 8/15/2022. Yellow indicates at least a 15% chance.

Excessive Rainfall Outlook valid 8/16/2022. Yellow indicates at least a 15% chance.

Forecast

Massive-Elbert Zone	AM	PM
8/16	30%	100%
8/17	20%	80%
8/18	Dry	50%
8/19	Dry	60%
8/20	Dry	80%
8/21	10%	80%

Breakout hourly forecast for 8/20 in Leadville:

8/20	4am	10am	Noon	4pm	9pm
LT 100	Dry	20%	80%	80%	20%

Bonus Forecast: Crestone Peak

Crestone Peak	AM	PM
8/16	30%	100%
8/17	30%	100%
8/18	Dry	40%
8/19	Dry	60%
8/20	Dry	70%
8/21	20%	80%

Here’s my 8/15 mountain weather forecast update video: