Tomer’s Take:
- This is one of the most robust Monsoon season’s in Colorado in recent memory.
- It stays active through the end of August.
- Two events upcoming on 8/20: LT 100 run and Triple Bypass bike race.
- Two Monsoon surges: 1) Now-8/17 (medium intensity), 2) 8/20-8/22 (Lower intensity).
Current Setup
Water vapor satellite shows the current Monsoon surge in NM, AZ, UT, and CO. Orange/red colors = drier air aloft.
Flash Flood Potential
The excessive rainfall outlook for 8/16/2022. The yellow shaded area has at least a 15% chance of flash flooding.
The excessive rainfall outlook for 8/17/2022. The yellow shaded area has at least a 15% chance of flash flooding.
Forecast
The LT100 run is 8/20.
| Massive-Elbert | AM | PM |
| 8/17 | 10% | 70% |
| 8/18 | Dry | 10% |
| 8/19 | Dry | 70% |
| 8/20 | Dry | 80% |
| 8/21 | Dry | 70% |
| 8/22 | Dry | 60% |
Hourly forecast 8/20:
| Leadville | 4am | 10am | Noon | 4pm | 9pm |
| Precip% | Dry | 10% | 80% | 80% | 40% |
Triple Bypass 8/20:
High/Low air temps over Loveland Pass and Vail Pass: 54°/31°
| Loveland-Vail | 5am | 10am | Noon | 4pm | 9pm |
| Precip% | Dry | Dry | 70% | 70% | 30% |
Total precipitation between 8/16-8/20:
Here’s my mountain weather forecast video 8/16.