Tomer’s Take

• The Nor` Easter track continues to wobble. I’ll assume it hugs the coast a little closer in this update favoring MA, ME, and NH.
• Out West, February arrives with a cold front 2/1-2/2 for MT, ID, WY, MT, CO, NM. It might brush Utah’s Wasatch with light accumulation.
• After this cold front, high pressure builds back and stalls. This could turn into another long-term problem.

Water vapor satellite shows the storm track and developing low pressure off the Carolina coast. A cold front sliding through Ohio will merge with this low pressure to generate a Nor` Easter this weekend.

Nor` Easter

My snow forecast today assumes the low pressure hugs the coast a little closer.

If the low stays further offshore then totals go lower:

Fate of the West

I’m forecasting one cold front 2/1-2/2 then high pressure builds back in and stalls. This is not the pattern we were hoping for. California, Nevada, and Utah have been exceptionally dry for the entire month of January.

The forecast below is one possible outcome valid 2/4-2/5 with higher pressures across the West and lower pressures across the East.

Snow Forecast

1/28-2/6:

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

Tomer’s Take

• Nor` Easter remains on track for parts of the Northeast. The biggest totals appear to cover MA, NH, and ME. Moderate to heavy accumulation in VT.
• A minor cold front races through MT, WY, CO, and NM on 1/27.
• February appears to turn more active across the West with falling pressures. Will it be enough to break the long-standing high pressure dome? Data remains split.

Nor` Easter

The exact track of the low pressure determines where the heaviest snow accumulates.

Here’s one possible outcome:

February

Will we break down the Western high pressure dome? February is looking more active across the West. But, confidence is not as high as it was last week with new data turning bearish.

The GFS remains bullish most of February. Look at the forecast jet stream early February. If this plays out then expect widespread cold and snow across the Intermountain West. It continues this pattern into the 2nd week as well.

On the other hand, EPS data has softened and turned more bearish. The latest Pacific North American Pattern only briefly turns negative then back to neutral/positive. This is a change from a week ago when it was mostly negative.

Snow Forecast

1/26-1/30:

1/31-2/4:

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

Tomer’s Take

• Potential Nor` Easter this weekend. Track remains in question. I look at the worst case scenario below.
• A cold front is currently racing through CO and into NM next 24 hours.
• February might deliver a stormier pattern across the West. Confidence took a hit with some data now bearish. For now we’ll assume February turns stormier.

Colorado sunshine greeted me yesterday (Monday) for a trail run in the Foothills. Now it’s snowing and 28 degrees!

Infrared satellite and storm track. Notice the cold front piercing the eastern periphery of the high pressure ridge.

Potential Nor` Easter

Data is split on whether a major storm system will hit the Northeast this weekend. I’ll play out the worst case scenario assuming a perfect storm track. An imperfect track would reduce these numbers significantly.

Snow Forecast

1/25-1/28:

1/29-2/3:

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

Tomer’s Take

• A fast moving cold front delivers light snow accumulation to MT, UT, WY, UT, CO, NM between 1/24-1/25.
• Cold air and 2-3 Alberta Clippers this week for the Northeast. A larger storm system possible this weekend in VT, NH, ME.
• Pattern could flip in February with snow returning to the West.

Infrared satellite and storm track shows the Western high pressure ridge.

February Pattern Change?

Confidence is growing for a pattern change starting February 1. Lower pressures could replace the big Western high pressure ridge. Snow could return to California for the first time in a month.

Snow Forecast

1/24-1/28:

1/29-2/2:

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

Tomer’s Take

• New snow is being reported this morning across the Tetons and Wasatch.
• This cold front races through Colorado today with 2-6 inches of accumulation.
• The next cold front hits MT, WY, CO, NM between 1/24-1/25.

Infrared satellite shows the storm track. These cold fronts hitting MT, ID, WY, UT, CO, NM are piercing the eastern periphery of the western high pressure ridge.

Snow Forecast

1/21-1/23:

1/24-1/30:

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

Tomer’ Take

• Two cold fronts pierce the eastern periphery of the western high pressure ridge through 1/25 favoring MT, ID, WY, UT, CO, NM.
• The overall pattern appears to flip by early February with lower atmospheric pressures and a dipping jet stream across the West.
• This would suggest a shift to a more active, colder weather pattern by early February.

Infrared satellite shows the storm track. It allows two cold fronts to brush MT, ID, WY, UT, CO, and NM through 1/25.

Early February

There are signs the overall pattern could flip across the USA. Lower pressures could replace the big high pressure across the West.

The Pacific North American Pattern (PNA) agrees. It turns negative, which can indicate a more active weather pattern across the West.

Snow Forecast

1/20-1/23:

1/24-1/29:

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

Tomer’s Take

• Cold front races north to south through MT, WY, UT, CO, and NM between Thursday-Friday-Saturday morning with light to moderate snow accumulation.
• Another cold front possible 1/24-1/25.
• The Northeast stays cold with light snow chances and lake-effect snow. A larger storm system stays far enough off the coast to miss the big ski areas this weekend.

Infrared satellite shows the storm track. These cold fronts are sneaking through the eastern periphery of the high pressure sitting over CA/NV.

Snow Forecast

Let’s look at my snow forecast in two time periods.

1/19-1/23:

1/24-1/28:

Tomer’s Take

• First front is minor and hits ID, MT, WY, and CO between 1/18-1/19.
• Second front has more moisture and hits ID, MT, WY, UT, CO and NM between 1/20-1/21. Moderate snow accumulation in the Wasatch, Tetons, and Central & Northern Mountains of Colorado.
• Third front is packing colder air and hits MT, WY, UT, CO and NM between 1/24-1/25.

Infrared satellite shows the storm track. You can see how all three cold fronts will sneak through the eastern periphery of the high pressure ridge. No snow for California through 1/27.

Snow Forecast

Let’s look at my snow forecast in two time periods.

1/18-1/21:

Most of this snow accumulation occurs 1/20-1/21.

1/22-1/27:

Most of this snow accumulation occurs 1/24-1/25.