Pattern through end of May

Tomer’s Take:

• High pressure rebuilds across the West 5/13-5/18. The storm track shifts into the PNW/B.C.
• Then pressures might drop with a large trough and dip in the jet stream 5/19-5/25.
• Beyond 5/25? High pressure might rebuild.
• What are the possible effects of a large trough 5/19-5/25? Colder than normal temps, mountain snowfall, and strong wind by May standards.
• Dust continues be a significant problem across parts of the West including UT and CO. New dust is being transported in as I write this column. The dust decreases snowpack albedo and accelerates snowmelt. This is likely the most dust since 2009.

Wasatch Dust

Look at the dust layers lurking in the Wasatch as presented by Dr. McKenzie Skiles:

Dusty snow update for the Wasatch – what were once distinct individual layers (left) have combined into a mega layer (right) lurking under the new snow❄️🦈

📸: Snow HydRO PhD Otto Lang pic.twitter.com/393z4nKXEf

— Dr. McKenzie Skiles (@UTSnowHydro) May 11, 2022

In Colorado, MODIS satellite with MAIAC Aerosol Optical Depth overlay really paints the smoky/dusty picture.

Current Setup

Infrared satellite shows the storm track and powerful jet stream running through the Intermountain West.

5/19-5/25

A large trough of low pressure is possible across the West. Below, notice the atmospheric pressure anomalies. After 5/25? High pressure might rebuild.

Wind Gust Forecast

Notice how winds relax as high pressure rebuilds 5/13 and after.

Gust (MPH)	5/12	5/13	5/14	5/15
Little Bear Peak	65	40	35	35
Quandary Peak	55	40	35	25
Mount Sneffels	55	30	30	25
Kings Peak	55	40	30	25
Humphreys Peak	40	25	35	35
Grand Teton	45	55	40	20

Snow Forecast

5/12-5/21: