A bulletproof area of high pressure remains in control of the Intermountain West. Pressures are running a full two standard deviations above the 30-year average. This locks-in warmer and drier than normal conditions at most Lower 48 ski areas. Notice on this water vapor satellite image the red/orange colors representing drier air.

Schweitzer in northern Idaho is just south of the storm track, but even being close doesn’t guarantee it’s cold enough for natural or machine-made snow.

Based on current conditions & a warm forecast this week, we will be closed Mon-Fri Nov 29-Dec 3 🙁
Without freezing temps, we can't make snow, move snow around & recover. Looks like temps start cooling Fri – hopefully we can fire up the snowguns again & continue making snow. pic.twitter.com/imiwVtubPB

— Schweitzer (@SchweitzerID) November 28, 2021

Meanwhile in Canada, Revelstoke Mountain Resort was closed on Sunday for extreme avalanche danger after three feet of accumulation in the last 7 days. The PNW, British Columbia, and western Alberta are in the snow bullseye.

Avalanche forecast near Revelstoke from Avalanche Canada:

When will the pattern change?

The best data suggest a dip in the jet stream and pressure pattern on/around December 7. But, my gut says it might take more than one storm system to break down this large high pressure ridge. So, there are no guarantees on December 7.

How much snow are we talking about at ski areas? I’ll break this analysis down into two parts.

First, let’s look at my snow (inches) forecast through 12/5 first, click to enlarge:

Second, let’s gauge the strength of a potential storm system 12/6-12/8, click to enlarge:

I started Sunday morning off with a kettlebell workout. It helps my focus.

The most consistent new snow through 12/4 will continue to fall across the Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, and western Alberta. The problem for most of the Lower 48 Intermountain West continues to be this bulletproof area of high pressure running two standard deviations (higher pressures) than the 30-year average. My gut says it will take a couple storm systems to break it down. Until then warmer and drier than normal conditions prevail.

Notice on this water vapor satellite image the amount of red/orange colors across the West. That represents drier air.

When will it break? The latest data suggests 12/5. But, like I said above, it will take more than one storm system to break it down completely. In the world of meteorology we call this a storm cycle. In other words, it can’t be a “one and done”.

Here’s my snow forecast between 11/28-12/4, click to enlarge:

If you prefer, here’s my forecast video for more analysis:

I’m forecasting a challenging 10-day stretch for the ski areas in the lower 48. A king dome of high pressure is building. Higher pressures may run a full two standard deviations above the 30-year average. This means warmer and drier than normal conditions are likely. The Intermountain West is in a holding pattern.

The bulk of new snow during this timeframe will fall in the Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, and western Alberta. This is where the storm track will deliver a parade of strong storm systems.

Steamboat delayed their original opening date and will attempt to open on 11/27. They are doing everything they can to make enough snow to cover the lower portion of the mountain. They are in a similar situation as other ski areas with lower base elevations. A base elevation of 6900′ makes them more susceptible to warmer temps and a shifting rain/snow line.

Let’s look at my forecast wind gusts over the Western high peaks. This gives us clues as to where the jet stream is located. Notice the strongest gusts are over Mount Rainier where the jet stream will consistently run through 12/5. But, notice late in the period some of the gusts start to increase on other lower 48 high peaks when the pattern might start to shift.

When will this pattern change? When will the lower 48 Intermountain West get rain/snow? We might have to wait until after December 5.

How much total snow is on the horizon? Here’s my forecast 11/26-12/5, click to enlarge:

We’re moving into a difficult pattern across the Western Rockies through December 4. Pressures are rising as a dome of high pressure builds. At it’s peak, this “king high pressure” could reach two standard deviations above the 30-year normal. This means warmer and drier than normal weather for most lower 48 ski areas.

The primary storm track and precipitation bullseye during this timeframe will favor the Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, and western Alberta. Heavy snow is likely at Whistler/Blackcomb, Mount Baker, Revelstoke, Marmot Basin, Sunshine Village, and Panorama to name a few locations. This will likely leave these areas in best shape headed into Christmas.

My 10-day snow forecast paints a grim picture for the lower 48. Click to enlarge:

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone and thanks for subscribing to my Blog!

Snow is falling in Colorado. A minor cold front and southern low will race through and be gone by Thanksgiving morning. Snow totals should range from 1-5 inches.

Light snow is also falling at Angel Fire and Taos, NM.

Unfortunately, this is a one and done situation. The storm track will quickly shift away on Thanksgiving. Abnormally warm and dry conditions will move in this weekend and into next week. The West gets torched with temperatures that could run 20 degrees above normal. We might not see any new snow until December 2 or later, and even this is no guarantee.

The snow bullseye through this weekend and early next week is the Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, and western Alberta. An active storm track delivers 2-3 different major storm systems.

Here’s my snow forecast between 5am Wednesday and 5pm Sunday. Click to enlarge:

Notice the big totals at Whistler/Blackcomb. Here’s my snow plume forecast through 12/2.

The bulk of new snow through Thanksgiving will hit the Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, and Western Alberta. This storm system will then drop south with light to moderate snowfall in Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Utah, and Colorado. A second storm system coming from the south Pacific will deliver light to moderate snow to southern Colorado and Northern New Mexico.

Conditions in Southern Colorado and Northern New Mexico including Taos are dry.

Here’s my snow forecast through 5pm Thursday. Click to enlarge:

Let’s take a closer look at Jackson Hole (opening Thanksgiving Day). Here’s my snow plume forecast, click to enlarge:

Kettlebell workouts get me into the right forecasting mood!

It’s Thanksgiving week and i’m tracking two storm systems in the Pacific Ocean: One in the North Pacific and one in the South Pacific.

The bulk of snow accumulation through this week and upcoming weekend will occur in the Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, and western Alberta. There are a couple other places to watch in the Intermountain West including southern Colorado, northern New Mexico. Click to enlarge:

For a full analysis and timeline here’s my forecast video.