Lingering NW Flow 11/10

The primary storm system exits Colorado on Wednesday. Behind this storm system the mid-level atmospheric wind shifts and blows from the northwest. Right now this looks like a minor northwest flow 11/11/-11/12 through Idaho, Wyoming, at times northern Utah, and the Central and Northern Mountains of Colorado.

Water vapor satellite 11/10/2021 5am.

In the Pacific Northwest, a storm system delivers moderate precipitation with rising snow levels.

Rain/Snow Line11/1011/1111/12
Freezing level forecast 11/10/2021 6am.

Here’s my snow forecast into this weekend.

Mid-Mountain (Inches)11/1011/1111/1211/13
Jackson Hole121
Copper Mountain12<1
Big Sky21
Tomer snow forecast 11/10/2021 6am.

Mountain weather update 11/9

Snow levels started high around 9,000ft at Tahoe and Mammoth but have now fallen to about 6,000ft. I’m forecasting 4-12 inches mid-mountain at the ski areas.

Snow falling at Mammoth Ski Area 6am 11/9/2021.

This storm system will then push rain/snow into Utah, Wyoming, and Colorado on Tuesday through Wednesday.

Radar 6am 11/9/2021.

Snow levels start high around 7,500ft in Utah and Colorado before falling to valley levels. Here are my forecast totals.

Mid-Mountain Totals11/9-1111/11-13
Park City8″
Jackson Hole7″6″
Big Sky3″3″
Winter Park6″2″
Marmot Basin<1″<1″
Tomer snow forecast 11/9/2021

A northwest flow develops behind the main storm system between 11/11-11/13. That’s why you see additional snow accumulation in Wyoming, parts of Montana and Idaho, and the Central and Northern Mountains of Colorado.

Mid-level wind flow (~18,000ft) and Northwest Wind Flow, GFS interpretation 11/9/2021.
Tomer forecast video 11/9/2021 11am.

Monday roundup 11/8

A minor cold front is sliding through Colorado. More importantly, a larger storm system is taking aim at CA and then UT, ID, WY, and CO. This is the storm system to watch for moderate to heavy snow totals.

Infrared satellite 11/8/2021 6am.

California gets the precipitation first. It starts tonight and continues on Tuesday. Snow levels initially start high around 9,000ft (cutting down on overall snow accumulation) then drops quickly to 6,000ft. There is a weak and brief atmospheric river contribution to this storm system.

Integrated Vapor Transport forecast 11/8/2021.

This storm system then pushes snow into Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, southern Montana, and Colorado.

As a bonus, behind this storm system the atmospheric flow shifts and becomes northwest favoring a residual snow pattern on the high peaks with some additional accumulations.

Here are my forecast accumulations:

Mid-Mountain Totals11/8-11/911/9-11/11
Jackson Hole5″7″
Park City9″
Berthoud Pass6″
Tomer snow forecast 11/8/2021 6am.

Mountain weather update 11/7: The week ahead

There are two storm systems lined-up for the West. The first storm is minor. The 2nd storm system is the one to watch for CA, UT, WY, and CO.

Water vapor satellite 11/7/2021 6am. Two storm systems.

The first storm system is already moving across the intermountain west with minor amounts of rain/snow depending on elevation. The 2nd storm system sitting over the Pacific will hit CA on 11/8-11/9 with a weak atmospheric river influence (see forecast chart below). Snow levels at Tahoe start high around 10,000ft then fall to 6,000ft as the storm progresses.

Forecast integrated vapor transport.

That storm system will then deliver colder air by 11/9/-11/10 and snow to parts of UT, WY, and CO. Click to enlarge my snow forecast:

Tomer snow forecast 11/7/2021 6am.

In Colorado, the best accumulations occur in the Central and Northern Mountain zones with less in Southern Colorado.

All the while, a steady stream of snowfall will continue in parts of the PNW including Whistler/Blackcomb high alpine.

Tomer forecast video 11/7/2021.

Weekend mountain weather 11/5

The West Coast and Pacific Northwest remain the hot spots for heavy rain/snow and wind. The jet stream will buckle early next week allowing for a small atmospheric river to hit California around 11/9. This storm system then moves into the Intermountain West with snow and wind. For a more in-depth explanation please watch my forecast video.

The latest Integrated Vapor Transport forecast does indicate a weak to potentially moderate atmospheric river 11/9-ish in Central and Northern California.

Integrated Vapor Transport forecast for Central California, 11/5/2021.

Notice the surge of wind on 11/9-11/10 as the jet stream targets California. That wind surge then moves into the interior Rockies. Click to enlarge:

Tomer wind gusts forecast 11/5/2021 9am.

Heavy rain/snow is hitting the Pacific Northwest

2-3 different storm systems are riding the jet stream into OR, WA, and British Columbia with heavy precipitation.

Mid-level water vapor satellite 11/4/2021 6am. Active flow pattern.

The first storm system is abnormally warm with high snow levels between 6,000-8,000ft, but levels fall on Friday and Saturday to 3,000ft as colder air moves in.

Rain falling at Whistler/Blackcomb lower elevations, Village Cam 2,214′.

I’m forecasting heavy snow totals at mid-mountain and higher. Click on my forecast to enlarge:

Tomer snow forecast 11/4/2021 5am.

This strong, moist PNW flow might continue next week as well. This is what you would expect during a La Nina pattern.

Wettest October on record in parts of California: Is the drought over?

The atmospheric river delivered. Rainfall data reveals the wettest October on record in numerous locations (dark green).

It’s the equivalent of 300%+ of normal. But, is it enough to break the drought? Not according to professor Leslie Roche at UC Davis.

We could be looking at a small atmospheric river early next week in Central and Northern California.

Storm system crossing UT, CO, WY; Small atmospheric river early next week

Light to moderate snow is falling in the mountains of Utah, Wyoming, and Colorado. I’m forecasting minor snow amounts except for a couple isolated locations in Colorado’s Northern Mountains like Cameron Pass.

Radar 6am 11/2/2021.

I’m forecasting a few inches of accumulation in Utah’s Wasatch and Wyoming’s Teton Range.

Snowbird cam 6am 11/2/2021.

In Colorado, light to moderate accumulation is likely in the Central and Northern Mountain zones including Aspen/Snowmass, Vail, Loveland, and Steamboat.

Tomer forecast snow totals 11/2-3/2021.

Looking down the road, the storm track early next week shifts south and could deliver 1-2 storm systems for the Central and Northern mountains of California including Tahoe. It’s possible these storm systems are fueled by a small atmospheric river.

IVT forecast plume GEFS

Monday morning roundup 11/1

The first week of November delivers three storm systems across the Intermountain West.

Infrared satellite and storm track, 11/1/2021 5am.

I’m forecasting minor snow amounts on the highest peaks except for the PNW and Mount Rainier where the storm track is more favorable. Here’s my snow forecast, click to enlarge:

Tomer snow forecast 11/1/2021 5am.

The third storm of the group generates strong wind across the West Thursday-Friday. A few examples:

Tomer wind gust forecast 11/1/2021 5am.

Mountain Weather update 10/31

There are a few storm systems lined-up into the Pacific Ocean targeting the first week of November. Each will follow a similar storm track into the PNW then into the intermountain West.

Infrared satellite with storm systems, 10/31/2021 5am.

Each front delivers light to moderate snow amounts to the WY, CO, MT, and UT. Unfortunately, the storm track does not favor California. It’s amazing how quickly Tahoe and Mammoth went from a strong atmospheric river back to drier than normal conditions.

Here’s my extended snow forecast. Click to enlarge:

Tomer snow forecast 10/31/2021 5am.

I’ll upload a video forecast update later today to my YouTube channel.