Atmospheric River for PNW/BC with Teton Range snow bullseye

Tomer’s Take: Two weak to moderate intensity atmospheric river (AR) surges hits the PNW/BC between 11/2-11/8 with overrunning snow in Banff, MT and especially WY where a snow bullseye is possible. Snow levels start high in the PNW/BC with snow at higher elevations.

My forecast video:

Current Setup

Water vapor satellite shows a powerful Pacific Jet and area of low pressure aiming at the PNW/BC.

Red/orange = drier air aloft.

Forecast Atmospheric River

Moisture transport: Forecast Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) valid 11/2-11/3. Notice it’s pointed into the PNW.

Forecast IVT for PNW showing two different weak to moderate intensity surges.

Forecast Jet Stream

Valid 11/2. Jet acts like a moisture conveyor belt.

Valid 11/5. Powerful jet stream orientation.

Forecast Snowfall

*Updated 4pm 10/31.

Valid 10/31-11/5. The bullseye is the Teton Range.

*Updated 4pm 10/31.

Valid 11/6-11/9.

Specific Forecasts

Jackson Hole Ski Area (mid-mountain or higher):

11/2: PM 2-3″

11/3: AM 4-6″

11/4: 6″

11/5: 6″

11/6: 1-3″

11/7: 1-3″

Mount Rainier:

11/1: PM 7″

11/2: 16″

11/4: 15″

11/5: 8″

11/6: 6″

11/7: 6″

Forecast Rain/Snow Line

Washington State (Min/Max):

11/1: 8700/11300

11/2: 6900/9200

11/3: 6900/8900

11/4: 6400/8500

11/5: 6200/7200