The high pressure dome sitting across the West strengthened to three standard deviations above the 30-year average. This means that the next storm system will have a more difficult time breaking it down. Like I said yesterday, my gut says it might take two storm systems with the first being sacrificed to break the high.
In the above satellite image I marked the storm track in yellow. The bullseye remains the Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, and western Alberta. This flow is actually so strong that it exceeds the threshold required to be a “moderate to strong atmospheric river”. Here’s the integrated vapor transport forecast (IVT):
When will snow return to the West? Yesterday I suggested on/around 12/7. That still looks accurate but the strength of the storm system is in question as it runs into a stronger high pressure ridge. In the end, it might be what’s behind this first storm system that really matters. In other words, what we need is a full storm cycle rather than a one-and-done.
As the storm track drops south so will the wind. Wind gusts on the higher peaks will start to increase late in the period.
Snow Forecast
The potential amounts of snow are trending down. Let’s look at this before the pattern change and after.
My snow forecast (inches) between 11/30 and 12/5, click to enlarge:
Total snow between 12/6-12/9, click to enlarge:
I may be climbing Elbert soon so I’ll watch your forecast!