Next week’s storm system(s)

The high pressure ridge across the West is running three standard deviations above the 30-year average . This means it’s strong. But, a storm system (or two) next week will attempt to break it down. The current water vapor satellite continues to show very dry air across the Intermountain West (Red = Drier Air).

Water vapor satellite 12/1/2021 5am. Red = Drier Air.

Next Week

There are two storm systems lined-up for the Intermountain West between 12/6-12/10. This is good news because it will take more than one storm system to completely break down the high pressure dome.

Storm #1, 12/6-12/7:

12/6-12/7 500mb GFS pressure pattern.

Storm #2, 12/9-12/10:

12/9-12/10 500mb GFS pressure pattern.

How much snowfall? Let’s break this down into two timeframes again.

My forecast totals 12/1-12/6, click to enlarge:

Inches of total snow 12/1-12/6.

My snow forecast between 12/6-12/10, click to enlarge:

Inches total snow 12/1-12/6.

Let’s drill down a little more and look at Jackson Hole. Here’s my snow plume forecast 10 days into the future. You can see the effect of both storm systems.

Tomer snow plume forecast 12/1/2021.

What’s my opinion on both storm systems? It’s too early to get excited but at least there’s something on the horizon. I worry about the strength of the high pressure ridge. Two storm systems are required to do the job.

8 thoughts on “Next week’s storm system(s)”

  2. Brett

    Do you happen to have a snow plume forecast for Park City? Supposed to be out there 12/18 (from Kansas)and wondering if it will be worth it. If I’m reading this right the first storm isn’t supposed to be that far south.

  3. Rodney Ley

    Chris, I have a question about the Red = Drier model. In your first graphic “Water Vapor Satellite 12/1/21”, how is it that air over the Pacific ocean (a pretty wet spot) can be as dry as air over Arizona and New Mexico?

    Is there something I’m missing here? Perhaps elevation or historic averages? Thanks for these insightful posts.

    1. christomer Post author

      Hi Rodney, I should clarify this isn’t ground-level moisture, it’s roughly 8,000-15,000ft up in the atmosphere.
      This water vapor satellite is looking at reflectance in the 7.3micron channel.
      At these altitudes in the troposphere it would miss the moisture contrast you speak of between the Pacific and Arizona.

      Best,
      Chris

Comments are closed.