Monsoon surge this weekend

Tomer’s Take:

  • The Monsoon is 1-2 weeks earlier than normal and it’s here to stay (normal Monsoon season is July-August in Colorado).
  • The first official surge of the season occurred last weekend.
  • This weekend’s surge looks bigger and intensity peaks on Saturday.
  • The biggest impact occurs in the San Juan and Sangre De Cristo Mountain ranges. Plan on small weather windows with early/late/overnight rain/t-storms/summit snow chances.

Forecast precipitable water values push 200% of 30-year averages over Southwest and Southern Colorado.

Forecast precipitable water % of 30-year averages, GFS interpretation.

Below is the Central Sawatch hourly forecast for Saturday 6/25 – Sunday 6/26 at about 12,500ft. What you don’t see here is a snow chance for the 14ers. I could see 1-4 inches on some 14ers in the Sawatch, Sangres, and San Juan Mountains.

NWS digital hourly forecast from 6/21/2022.

Looking ahead to 4th of July weekend

We could see another Monsoon surge for 4th of July weekend (7/1-7/4).

Forecast precipitable % of 30-year average, GFS interpretation.

4 thoughts on “Monsoon surge this weekend”

  1. Erin Elston

    Hey Chris,
    I’ve been watching your news casts as well and with the early arrival of the monsoon season do you foresee a longer monsoon season or an early exit as well?
    PS You now have my hopes up for a July 4th surge!
    Thank you!
    Erin

    1. christomer Post author

      Thanks, Erin! I’m not sure. I’ve seen data that says it starts strong (late June), stays strong early July, then fades into August. Chris

  2. Zach

    So for those of us running in the San Juan Solstice 50 (SJS50.com) this coming Saturday… any last words or final thoughts?

    1. christomer Post author

      Hi Zach, dry Saturday morning with midday/afternoon rain/t-storms likely. The course will be wet from Thursday-Friday. Have fun and good luck! Chris

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