The first moderate to strong atmospheric river (AR) of the season is on track for Central and Northern California. Let’s drill down on the details. The main surge hits California Sunday-Monday (10/24-25). It’s preceded by 1-2 smaller waves with high snow levels. TAHOE ZONE R/S LINE THR/FRI >10,000′ SAT 8,000′ SUN 6,000′ MON 6,000′ Tomer […]
Category: Forecasting
Atmospheric river setting up for California
The first moderate to strong atmospheric river (AR) of this Fall/Winter is on the horizon for California between Sunday-Monday. You’ll also notice two weaker atmospheric river waves prior to Sunday-Monday. Forecast liquid precipitation totals are impressive through Tuesday. This moisture is what California needs after a bone-dry Summer, but the downside is that it almost […]
La Nina has officially arrived, again
La Nina is here for the 2nd straight Fall/Winter. Sea surface temps (SST’s) in the equatorial south Pacific have cooled to -0.5C (the official minimal threshold). The bulk of data suggests that La Nina continues through the entire upcoming Winter (87% chance according to NOAA). If you haven’t yet, please check out my Winter forecast. […]
Monday morning thoughts
The golden days of October roll on. Snow is ending at Tahoe and Mammoth, CA, but wind continues to blow. This fast moving, windy cold front hits Utah next then Colorado. Gusts on the higher peaks will increase to 30-60mph. Utah’s Wasatch Front should do well with this particular flow. Less accumulation in Colorado. Location […]
Mountain weather update 10/17
One storm system remains on the horizon this week across the West. It’s fast-moving and is minor compared to the storm cycle last week. It will spread strong wind (30-70mph) from the Sierra into Utah and Colorado. Beyond this, it’s going to be a waiting game unless you’re in the higher elevations of PNW. Whistler/Blackcomb, […]
Mountain weather update 10/16: On the horizon
There is one storm system on the horizon for the West early next week. Overall, it’s not major and the pattern doesn’t look as active as last week. Whistler/Blackcomb, BC will do the best with the jet stream positioned favorably. You’ll also notice some snowfall in my forecast below for Tahoe ski areas and Mammoth, […]
What happened at the 2021 DC Peaks 50mile race?
I work for race directors and climbing/skiing teams as a meteorologist in mountain settings, so i’m very familiar with how this process works. The objective is risk management. My approach is to put a spotlight on any potential bad weather, alert the race director, and then runners get an email blast with a forewarning so […]
12″ New Snow Alta, Snowbird
The first of two storm systems delivered a foot (or more) of new snow to Little Cottonwood Canyon, Utah. The 2nd storm system arrives late Wednesday and runs through Thursday. In Colorado, this same storm system arrives today. I’m forecasting 2-6 inches at the ski areas with storm #1. Similar additional amounts with storm #2. […]
2nd Opinion: Winter forecast from Boudreau & Gates
I want to share another perspective on this winter’s forecast – this one is Colorado specific. AspenWeather.net‘s forecaster Ryan Boudreau and meteorologist Cory Gates issued their official winter forecast last week. I’ve known Ryan for a few years and I know Cory to be an exceptional meteorologist. Their combined passion for skiing is contagious. Winter […]
A-Basin starts making snow; More in the forecast this week CO, UT, WY, MT
Stellar crystal sight this morning with A-Basin making snow. The ingredients all came together with a few inches of new natural snow and colder temps in the teens and 20s. I’m forecasting a good week ahead for the intermountain West including Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, Idaho, and Montana. A stronger, colder front will drive through Tuesday-Thursday […]