Snow falling in the Tetons; next stop Colorado

I’m forecasting moderate snow accumulation across the Tetons including Jackson Hole and Grand Targhee ski areas over the next 24 hours.

Jackson Hole 11/19/2021 5am.

Snow was also falling at Schweitzer in Idaho as well.

Schweitzer ski area 11/19/2021 5am.

A cold front is generating this snow. It’s next stop is Colorado between Friday night and Saturday.

Friday is opening day at Eldora Ski Area in Colorado. My friend Cole Noble wrote a blog post about it and spoke with Sam Bass of Eldora.

I’m forecasting light snow accumulation in the Central and Northern Mountain zones.

Water vapor satellite 11/19/2021 6am.

Here’s my snow forecast map showing totals between now and 5am Monday.

Snow totals between 11/19-22/2021.

Looking down the road, there is another storm system possible around Thanksgiving. The jet stream dips and delivers a cold front to the Intermountain West. Snow would be possible in Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, and Colorado between Wednesday-Thursday.

Jet stream valid 11/24-25/2021. GFS interpretation.

Weekend snow forecast and partial lunar eclipse

One storm system is lined-up for the Intermountain West this weekend (mainly Friday-Saturday). I’m forecasting minor snow amounts at most ski areas with a couple exceptions including the Tetons. Right, this storm system is hitting the Pacific Northwest.

Water vapor satellite 11/18/2021 6am.

We’ve seen this kind of minor, fast-moving, and moisture starved storm system a few times this Fall across the Intermountain West.

Is there anything more substantial on the horizon? Looking down the road to Thanksgiving there is another dip in the jet stream and storm system across the West.

Jet stream forecast valid 11/24/2021, GFS interpretation.

Between now and 5am Monday here’s my snow forecast across the West, click to enlarge.

Tomer snow forecast by 5am Monday.

Partial Lunar Eclipse Friday Morning 11/19/2021

The longest duration partial lunar eclipse in over 500 years occurs early Friday morning 11/19/2021. It’s slated to last 3hrs and 28mins. The peak happens at 2:03am MT.

However, I’m forecasting partly to mostly cloudy skies in Colorado. Here’s the forecast satellite image for Friday morning, click to enlarge.

GFS forecast cloud cover valid 11/19/2021 early morning.

Weekend storm system

A storm system currently over the Pacific Ocean will move into the West Coast/PNW then into the Intermountain West between Friday-Saturday. Right now this storm system appears minor for most ski areas with a few exceptions.

Water vapor satellite and storm track. 11/17/2021.

A minor cold front is currently racing through Colorado. Snow amounts across the Central and Northern Mountains are light, generally 1-3 inches.

Eldora Ski Area snow stake cam 6am 11/17/2021.
Arapahoe Basin 6am 11/17/2021.

Looking ahead to the weekend, the jet stream will usher that Pacific storm system into the West. Minor accumulation at most ski areas except for the Tetons and higher volcanoes of the PNW where moderate to heavy amounts are possible. Here is my mid-mountain snow forecast through Sunday at 5am, click to enlarge.

Tomer snow forecast through 5am Sunday. 11/17/2021 5am.

Too warm, little snow: More ski resorts delay opening

Northstar at Tahoe and Heavenly Ski Resort are both pushing back opening dates. Palisades Tahoe (formerly Squaw/Alpine) opened early, then closed, and will re-open November 24. In Colorado, Steamboat will delay opening until November 27. The common thread? A lack of low-elevation snow and warmer than normal temperatures. Base elevations at all three resorts run 6200′-6900′ where air temps have routinely warmed into the 50s and 60s this Fall.

11/16/2021 view at Palisades Tahoe. Base elevation: 6200′.
11/16/2021 view at Northstar at Tahoe. Base elevation 6330′.
11/16/2021 view at Steamboat, CO. Base elevation 6900′.

Also on the delayed list are Solitude in Utah and Telluride in Colorado.

View from Telluride Ski Resort in Colorado 11/16/2021.

The 11/16/2021 delayed list:

  • Northstar
  • Heavenly
  • Palisades Tahoe
  • Steamboat
  • Solitude
  • Telluride

A new study (November 2021) from the University of Toronto says the atmospheric freezing level (Troposphere) is on the rise. This makes lower elevation ski areas more susceptible to warmer temperatures, melting, fluctuating rain/snow lines, and ultimately later openings. Higher elevation ski areas would fare better.

The Tahoe announcements came on social media.

Weekend snow chances

A windy, moisture-starved, and fast-moving cold front is currently racing through Utah, Montana, Wyoming, and into Colorado. I’m forecasting minor snow accumulation (or zero) for most ski areas.

Satellite with storm track. 11/16/2021 5am.

Notice the weekend storm system over the Pacific on the satellite image above. The jet stream ushers that low pressure into the West this weekend. Overall, it’s a minor storm system with a couple exceptions.

Jet stream pattern valid Saturday 11/20/2021, GFS interpretation.

I’m forecasting minor snow amounts between now and 5am Sunday for most of the Western ski areas. A couple places could push moderate to heavy accumulations like Jackson Hole, Grand Targhee, and the backcountry around Cameron Pass, CO. Click to enlarge:

Tomer snow forecast between 11/16-21/2021.

Snow forecast this week: Two cold fronts

The heaviest snow continues to fall in the Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, and western Alberta. Sunshine Village is reporting a foot of new snow in the last 48 hours.

Sunshine Village, AB snow stake cam. About 12″ in 48 hours. 11/15/2021 5am.

The storm system currently hitting the PNW will send a cold front south into the lower 48 on Tuesday-Wednesday. It’s a fast-moving, moisture starved cold front.

Water vapor satellite and storm track 11/15/2021 5am. Blue/Green = moisture, Red/Orange = Drier.

The jet stream will dip south with this cold front. Strong wind is likely Monday-Tuesday-Wednesday across the Intermountain West. I’m forecasting gusts of 30-70mph over the high peaks and ski areas.

Jet stream level forecast valid 11/16-17/2021. GFS interpretation.

There is a second storm system lined-up for the West and Intermountain West between Friday-Saturday. It has a touch more moisture than the first storm system but it still looks minor to me.

Here’s my snow forecast for 27 ski areas over the next 8 days, click to enlarge:

Tomer snow forecast 11/15/2021 5am.

My raw forecast data, click to enlarge:

Kettlebells and Forecasts

I started Sunday morning with a kettlebell workout. Simple and effective! Just the way I like it.

The Trio. 11/14/2021

For the last 12 months i’ve consistently tried to record these 3-5minute mountain weather forecast videos each day. The feedback has been positive so i’ll keep doing them. If you find them valuable please subscribe to my YouTube channel and you’ll be notified when I upload new ones.

Tomer forecast video 11/14/2021.

Mountain weather update 11/13

The storm track this weekend continues to favor the Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, and western Alberta. That’s where the heaviest precipitation will accumulate. Snow levels will initially get pushed up high to 8,000′ then fall as colder air filters in.

Water vapor satellite, blue is moisture, red/orange is drier air. 11/13/2021 9am.

Rain/Snow line for Whistler/Blackcomb this weekend.

Freezing Level (FT)11/1311/1411/15
Whistler/Blackcomb3600′8000′7k to 4k

I’m forecasting heavy snowfall Sunday-Monday through the interior high mountains of British Columbia and western Alberta around Banff. Snow levels will get pushed high initially then fall. Overall accumulations mid-mountain and higher could range from 10-20″.

Freezing Level (FT)11/1311/1411/15
Sunshine Village Ski4000′5k to 7k7k to 4k

Across the Intermountain West in the Lower 48, I’m not forecasting much snow through the weekend into early next week. The next cold front arrives Tuesday-Wednesday and again late week.

Here’s my snow forecast for the next 8 days, click to enlarge:

Tomer snow forecast 11/13/2021 8am.

My raw forecast data, click to enlarge:

Tomer forecast video 11/13/2021.

Snow forecast next 8 days 11/12

The hot spot this weekend is the Pacific Northwest for heaviest precipitation with only light snowfall across the Intermountain West. Notice on the satellite image where the blue/green clouds are located: PNW and British Columbia. Red/orange colors represent drier areas.

Water vapor satellite 11/12/2021 6am.

A large dome of high pressure will shield California from any significant snow over the next 7 days. Looking further down the road, the high pressure might start to break down late mid to late next week. Here’s a look at the storm track on Wednesday of next week 11/16-11/17.

Jet stream forecast valid 11/16-11/17/2021, GFS interpretation 11/12/2021.

As for the Intermountain West (CO, MT, WY, UT, NM), i’m not forecasting much snow this weekend. Next week there are two fast-moving, minor storm systems lined-up.

Here’s my snow forecast, click to enlarge:

Tomer snow forecast 11/12/2021 6am.

My raw forecast data table, click to enlarge:

Snow continues in Colorado 11/11: NW Flow

Another 6 inches fell at Loveland Ski Area with more on the way. I’m forecasting this northwest flow through Friday morning across the Central and Northern Mountain zones of Colorado.

Loveland Ski Area snow stake 11/11/2021 5am.

In Colorado this NW Flow is magical. It’s early season but it’s still having an impact. I’m forecasting additional snow accumulation through Friday.

Atmospheric wind flow at about 18,000ft according to GFS model 11/11/2021.

In the Pacific Northwest, the flow remains wet with impulses of heavy precipitation. The rain/snow line will be going up Thursday before going back down Friday.

Freezing Level (FT)11/1111/12
Whistler/Blackcomb4K to 8K6K to 4K
Tomer freezing level forecast at Whistler/Blackcomb 11/11/2021.

How much additional snow? Here’s my forecast including 3-4 feet on Mountain Rainer over the next 72 hours.

Mid-Mountain (Inches)11/1111/1211/13
Whistler/Blackcomb546
Mount Rainier16352
Jackson Hole22
Steamboat22<1
Loveland33<1
Winter Park22<1
Crested Butte<1
Red Mtn Pass<1
Copper Mtn1<1
Snowmass/Aspen<1
Breckenridge1<1
Eldora21
Alta<1<1
Revelstoke<133
Tomer forecast totals (inches) 11/11/2021.
Tomer forecast video 11/11/2021.