Tomer’s Take

• Abnormally dry pattern across the West with large high pressure dome through 2/13.
• One minor, fast-moving cold front races through MT, WY, and CO between 2/10-2/11.
• 3-day break in precipitation for the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia this weekend as storm track shifts north.
• Two Alberta Clippers deliver light snow accumulation to the Northeast through 2/13.
• Snow returns to the Intermountain West around 2/14-2/15, but it appears to be a “one and done” setup.

Water vapor satellite shows the storm track and large Western high pressure ridge. Orange/red colors = drier air aloft.

Waiting Game

The long dry stretch continues across CA, NV, and UT. Cold fronts are forced down the eastern periphery of the ridge through MT, WY, CO, and NM. This is what you might expect during a La Nina phase with some exceptions of course. The latest forecast keeps La Nina in place through Winter then gradually transitions to a “neutral phase” late Spring and early Summer. In the forecast below, negative (colder) anomalies = La Nina.

A brief drop in pressures arrive 2/14-2/15, but it’s appears to be a “one and done” setup. High pressure rebuilds through 2/20.

What occurs after 2/20?

The Pacific North American Pattern (PNA) stays lightly negative through 2/24. This suggests an active pattern across the Intermountain West can’t be ruled out. But, it’s not a strong signal.

Snow Forecast

2/9-2/13:

2/14-2/18:

Northeast, 2/9-2/18:

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

Tomer’s Take

• Snow continues early today in NH, ME.
• Western high pressure keeps snow chances low through 2/13.
• Minor snowfall with a cold front races through MT, WY and into Colorado’s Central and Northern Mountains on 2/11.
• More active pattern possible after 2/14 but the signal isn’t major.
• In the Northeast, Alberta Clippers likely through 2/13.

Infrared satellite shows the storm track and large Western high pressure.

Long Range

I’m still watching for a more active pattern across the West after 2/14. The change doesn’t look major, the signal might be short-lived, and confidence is middle of the road.

You’re looking at forecast pressure anomalies valid 2/16.

Snow Forecast

2/8-2/13: I added Red Mountain, BC to the map.

2/14-2/17:

Northeast, 2/8-2/17:

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

Tomer’s Take

• Snow continues in the Northeast today with storm skiing. Then it’s a series of Alberta Clippers through 2/13.
• A fast-moving, minor cold front brushes ID, MT, and WY with light snow between tonight and Sunday.
• Large high pressure rebuilds across most of the West through 2/13.
• Possible pattern change after 2/14.

Infrared satellite shows the storm track and large high pressure rebuilding across the West.

Western High Pressure

Strong high pressure rebuilds across most of the West through 2/13. When will that change? Some data suggest after 2/14. This is one possible scenario with lower pressures returning on 2/15.

Snow Forecast

2/4-2/13:

Northeast, 2/4-2/13:

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

Tomer’s Take

• An Arctic front delivers ice and snow to the Midwest then heavy snow to the Northeast 2/3-2/4. Great powder days 2/4 and 2/5 at the major ski areas in VT, NH, and ME.
• A weak cold front brushes ID, MT, and WY with light snow accumulation 2/5-2/6.
• Out West, high pressure rebuilds with a long dry stretch setting up for CA, NV, UT 2/3-2/13.
• Possible pattern change 2/16 or later.

Water vapor satellite shows the storm track and Arctic front.

Western High Pressure

A large dome of high pressure rebuilds across most of the West through 2/15 with possible changes thereafter. Below is one possible scenario with lower pressures returning by 2/16.

Snow Forecast

2/3-2/12:

Northeast, 2/3-2/6:

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

Tomer’s Take

• An Arctic front delivers snow to CO and NM on 2/2. Biggest totals occur in Southern Colorado and Northern New Mexico.
• This front then drives east with ice and snow for the Midwest and Northeast.
• The major ski areas in the Northeast start as rain/ice then change to all snow with significant accumulation (10-20 inches) between 2/3-2/4.
• High pressure rebuilds across CA, NV, and UT through 2/12 with possible larger pattern change by 2/17.

Water vapor satellite shows the storm track and Arctic front moving through CO, NM and draped across the Midwest.

Larger Pattern

High pressure rebuilds across the Intermountain West including CA, NV, and UT through 2/12. This means warmer, drier weather returns.

There is some indication of a larger pattern change around 2/17. Notice across the West the high pressure dome is replaced by lower pressures and a dip in the storm track. This means colder, snowier weather returns.

Snow Forecast

2/2-2/3:

2/4-2/11:

Northeast, 2/2-2/6:

Tomer’s Take

• Arctic front delivers snow to MT, WY, ID, CO, NM between 2/1-2/3. Biggest totals occur in CO and NM.
• This could be the biggest storm of the Winter so far in Northern New Mexico at Taos, Ski Santa Fe, and Angel Fire with 1-2 feet of accumulation.
• This Arctic front develops into a snowstorm for the Midwest and Northeast 2/3-2/4. Substantial ice and mixed precipitation likely before changing to all snow.
• High pressure rebuilds across CA, NV, UT between 2/3-2/10 and possibly longer.

Water vapor satellite shows the storm track and Arctic cold front. Orange/red colors indicate drier air aloft.

Snow Forecast

2/1-2/3:

2/4-2/10:

Northeast 2/1-2/6:

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

Tomer’s Take

• Arctic Front hits MT, WY, ID, CO, and NM 2/1-2/3.
• This same Arctic Front develops into a storm system for the Northeast Thursday-Friday. Mixed precipitation early then changing to all snow.
• Looking ahead, high pressure appears to hold strong in CA, NV, UT. Earlier optimism about a pattern change has evaporated.

The water vapor satellite shows the current storm track and looming Arctic Front that’s headed south. The orange/reds are drier air aloft. The whites/blues are moisture aloft.

Western High Pressure

Earlier optimism about a larger pattern change for the West have evaporated. Higher pressures appear to remain over CA, NV, UT through 2/10.

The Pacific North American Pattern (PNA) has also flipped and is now more positive than negative 2/1-2/10. It trends negative by 2/14.

Snow Forecast

1/31-2/3:

2/4-2/9:

And, a look at the Northeast 1/31-2/6:

Tomer’s Take

• Nor` Easter tracking too far offshore to deliver major snow to VT. Favors certain parts of NH, ME, MA.
• Arctic front hits the Intermountain West 2/1-2/3. Light to moderate snow accumulation followed by a significant drop in air temps.
• Then high pressure builds and stalls. Problematic for CA, UT, NV.

Here’s my latest analysis and snow forecast through 2/7.