Big end to 2021; Forecast into 2022

Tomer’s Take

  • Final storm system merger underway for 2021 in UT, CO, NM, WY.
  • Looking into 2022, the storm track shifts north to favor the Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, Banff area, ID, WY, MT. Plan on major snow accumulation of 25-60″ at Stevens Pass, Baker, Rainier, Whistler/Blackcomb, Timberline, and Bachelor.
  • Then the jet stream shifts a little further south starting on the 4th and brushes northern UT and northern CO.
  • 8-day storm cycle totals now stand at 89″ in Crested Butte and will likely increase to about 105″ by 1/1. Schofield Pass SWE sits at 12.3″ since 12/23. These two pieces of data suggest a top-3 storm cycle for the Crested Butte zone. It rivals March 2019 and the Bury Butte storm cycle of January 2017.

Perspective

This graph is courtesy the Crested Butte Avalanche Center and shows the biggest storm cycles on Schofield Pass since 1986.

Courtesy Crested Butte Avalanche Center.

Storm Track

Infrared satellite shows the final storm system(s) moving through UT, CO, NM and the shifting storm track for the PNW.

Infrared satellite with storm track, 12/31/2021 5am.

What’s Next?

The jet stream shifts north the first week of 2022 and favors the PNW, B.C., the northern tier of the Rockies, ID, MT, and WY. Starting on the 4th, snow will brush the Wasatch and northern zones of Colorado.

Jet stream forecast valid 1/3-1/4, GFS interpretation.

Snow Forecast

Let’s look at my snow forecast in two time-periods. I added Brundage Mountain, ID to the map.

12/31-1/2:

Inches of total snow 12/31-1/2.

1/3-1/9:

Inches of total snow 1/3-1/9.

Drilling down, here’s my snow plume forecast for Aspen/Snowmass:

Inches of total snow.

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

8 thoughts on “Big end to 2021; Forecast into 2022

  1. April

    Thanks for adding brundage! Will be interesting to see your projections throughout the season! I’ll be watching this space!

    Reply
  2. K

    This storm has been ALL-TIME‼️ We have been entrenched for days. It’s important to remember Patrol and mountain Ops are working long hours just to get terrain open. A smile, a high five or knuckles and a sincere YEHAW AND THANK YOU goes a long way. Please be patient, be kind and be grateful these humans are working so hard for the pleasure of so many recreationalists ??❄️?‼️

    Reply
  3. Neal Martin

    Thanks for the snow plume shoutout for Aspen/Snowmass! It’s been SOOOO good here, truly a December for the books!

    Reply

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