Tomer’s Take
- Large Western high pressure blocks all major storm systems from CA, NV, WY, CO, NM through 2/14. Only minor cold fronts race down the eastern periphery through MT, WY, CO, NM.
- Zero snowfall in CA, NV, UT through 2/14.
- Pattern could turn more active after 2/14, but genuine pattern change might hold off until 2/18 or later.
I did some backcountry skiing on Saturday. It was windy, cold, and dry. Colorado’s snowpack has flatlined in the last 30 days with only minor amounts of new snow. SWE percentages have declined about 20%.
The Setup
Infrared satellite shows the storm track and large Western high pressure dome. Only minor, fast-moving cold fronts will pierce the eastern periphery of the high pressure dome.
Western High Pressure: What’s Next?
The pattern turns more active after 2/14 but genuine pattern change might hold off until 2/18 or later. The forecast below suggests a significant drop in pressures across the West on 2/18. If this occurs then the jet stream would support a colder, snowier pattern.
The Pacific North American Pattern (PNA) agrees. The Euro flips the pattern negative after the 14th. The signal is even stronger after the 18th.
A negative PNA tends to correlate with a more active pattern across the West.
Snow Forecast
2/7-2/16:
Northeast, 2/7-2/16:
