Waiting Game: Long Range Outlook

Tomer’s Take

  • Abnormally dry pattern across the West with large high pressure dome through 2/13.
  • One minor, fast-moving cold front races through MT, WY, and CO between 2/10-2/11.
  • 3-day break in precipitation for the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia this weekend as storm track shifts north.
  • Two Alberta Clippers deliver light snow accumulation to the Northeast through 2/13.
  • Snow returns to the Intermountain West around 2/14-2/15, but it appears to be a “one and done” setup.

Water vapor satellite shows the storm track and large Western high pressure ridge. Orange/red colors = drier air aloft.

Water vapor satellite 2/9/2022 6am.

Waiting Game

The long dry stretch continues across CA, NV, and UT. Cold fronts are forced down the eastern periphery of the ridge through MT, WY, CO, and NM. This is what you might expect during a La Nina phase with some exceptions of course. The latest forecast keeps La Nina in place through Winter then gradually transitions to a “neutral phase” late Spring and early Summer. In the forecast below, negative (colder) anomalies = La Nina.

ENSO model predictions 2/9/2022.

A brief drop in pressures arrive 2/14-2/15, but it’s appears to be a “one and done” setup. High pressure rebuilds through 2/20.

Forecast pressure anomalies valid 2/20, GFS interpretation.

What occurs after 2/20?

The Pacific North American Pattern (PNA) stays lightly negative through 2/24. This suggests an active pattern across the Intermountain West can’t be ruled out. But, it’s not a strong signal.

Pacific North American Pattern (PNA), EURO interpretation.

Snow Forecast

2/9-2/13:

Inches of total snow 2/9-2/13.

2/14-2/18:

Inches of total snow 2/14-2/18.

Northeast, 2/9-2/18:

Inches of total snow 2/9-2/18.

For more analysis please watch my forecast video:

4 thoughts on “Waiting Game: Long Range Outlook”

  1. Chad

    Awesome analysis as always Chris. Appreciate your work. I’m heading out to Big Sky 2/24-2/26 so I’m selfishly hoping something changes and we get a storm or two while I’m there. Looking at a few different sources, it doesn’t appear to be totally out of the question, but like you said it’s not a home run either. Fingers crossed we get a storm or two to help freshen the slopes up.

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