Snow forecast this week: Two cold fronts

The heaviest snow continues to fall in the Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, and western Alberta. Sunshine Village is reporting a foot of new snow in the last 48 hours.

Sunshine Village, AB snow stake cam. About 12″ in 48 hours. 11/15/2021 5am.

The storm system currently hitting the PNW will send a cold front south into the lower 48 on Tuesday-Wednesday. It’s a fast-moving, moisture starved cold front.

Water vapor satellite and storm track 11/15/2021 5am. Blue/Green = moisture, Red/Orange = Drier.

The jet stream will dip south with this cold front. Strong wind is likely Monday-Tuesday-Wednesday across the Intermountain West. I’m forecasting gusts of 30-70mph over the high peaks and ski areas.

Jet stream level forecast valid 11/16-17/2021. GFS interpretation.

There is a second storm system lined-up for the West and Intermountain West between Friday-Saturday. It has a touch more moisture than the first storm system but it still looks minor to me.

Here’s my snow forecast for 27 ski areas over the next 8 days, click to enlarge:

Tomer snow forecast 11/15/2021 5am.

My raw forecast data, click to enlarge:

5 thoughts on “Snow forecast this week: Two cold fronts

  1. Randall

    MVM- Most Valuable Meteorologist = Chris Tomer

    Looking at your predictions for Wolf Creek and they are getting skunked besides that one early dump. Wondering how this la nina differs from last years? W.C. got a lot of snow last season, especially early and mid season.

    My guess is that the ridge can’t trap moisture if there is no moisture to trap. Genius I am. Cheers!

    1. christomer Post author

      Hi Randall, this is pretty typical of a La Nina pattern. Southern CO tends to be drier and warmer than normal. This is not always the case (Fall 2020 is a good example). But, overall NM and Southern CO tend to be drier than normal during La Nina Winters.
      Chris

  2. Jim Hennessy

    ?? yea baby it’s snow in sunshine , on the mountain we are into two plus feet , and it’s still puking, at some point I will send you a few pics

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