Holding pattern for the Intermountain West

I’m forecasting a challenging 10-day stretch for the ski areas in the lower 48. A king dome of high pressure is building. Higher pressures may run a full two standard deviations above the 30-year average. This means warmer and drier than normal conditions are likely. The Intermountain West is in a holding pattern.

The bulk of new snow during this timeframe will fall in the Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, and western Alberta. This is where the storm track will deliver a parade of strong storm systems.

Steamboat delayed their original opening date and will attempt to open on 11/27. They are doing everything they can to make enough snow to cover the lower portion of the mountain. They are in a similar situation as other ski areas with lower base elevations. A base elevation of 6900′ makes them more susceptible to warmer temps and a shifting rain/snow line.

Let’s look at my forecast wind gusts over the Western high peaks. This gives us clues as to where the jet stream is located. Notice the strongest gusts are over Mount Rainier where the jet stream will consistently run through 12/5. But, notice late in the period some of the gusts start to increase on other lower 48 high peaks when the pattern might start to shift.

When will this pattern change? When will the lower 48 Intermountain West get rain/snow? We might have to wait until after December 5.

How much total snow is on the horizon? Here’s my forecast 11/26-12/5, click to enlarge: