A look into December and when snow returns

A bulletproof area of high pressure remains in control of the Intermountain West. Pressures are running a full two standard deviations above the 30-year average. This locks-in warmer and drier than normal conditions at most Lower 48 ski areas. Notice on this water vapor satellite image the red/orange colors representing drier air.

Schweitzer in northern Idaho is just south of the storm track, but even being close doesn’t guarantee it’s cold enough for natural or machine-made snow.

Based on current conditions & a warm forecast this week, we will be closed Mon-Fri Nov 29-Dec 3 🙁
Without freezing temps, we can't make snow, move snow around & recover. Looks like temps start cooling Fri – hopefully we can fire up the snowguns again & continue making snow. pic.twitter.com/imiwVtubPB

— Schweitzer (@SchweitzerID) November 28, 2021

Meanwhile in Canada, Revelstoke Mountain Resort was closed on Sunday for extreme avalanche danger after three feet of accumulation in the last 7 days. The PNW, British Columbia, and western Alberta are in the snow bullseye.

Avalanche forecast near Revelstoke from Avalanche Canada:

When will the pattern change?

The best data suggest a dip in the jet stream and pressure pattern on/around December 7. But, my gut says it might take more than one storm system to break down this large high pressure ridge. So, there are no guarantees on December 7.

How much snow are we talking about at ski areas? I’ll break this analysis down into two parts.

First, let’s look at my snow (inches) forecast through 12/5 first, click to enlarge:

Second, let’s gauge the strength of a potential storm system 12/6-12/8, click to enlarge: