The Ides of March

Tomer’s Take

  • Snow continues in UT, WY, ID, CO, NM on 3/9 through early 3/11. It’s a powder day across the Wasatch with 10-14″ new in 24 hours. It’s a powder day at Steamboat with 10″ new.
  • Then the storm track shifts north 3/12-3/18 into the Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, ID, MT, WY. A weak atmospheric river setup is possible with feet of snow accumulation at Baker, Stevens Pass, Whistler/Blackcomb, and Rainier. Moderate to heavy snow is possible at Schweitzer, Brundage, Red Mountain, Revelstoke, Sunshine Village, Fernie, Big Sky, Jackson Hole, and Grand Targhee.
  • We might see a cut-off low traverse UT, CO 3/16-3/18.
  • Beyond 3/18, high pressure rebuilds but there are signs of another pressure drop by 3/23-3/26 across the West.

10″ new in 24 hours at Steamboat, CO:

Steamboat snow stake 3/9/2022 6am.

Water vapor satellite shows the storm track and storm system hitting the Intermountain West. The storm systems over the north Pacific are lined-up for the Pacific Northwest. Orange/red = drier air aloft.

Water vapor satellite 3/9/2022 5am.

Cut-off Low

A cut-off low pressure system is possible across UT and CO 3/16-3/18. Below, notice the forecast low pressure anomalies valid 3/17.

Forecast pressure anomalies valid 3/9/2022, GFS interpretation.

Beyond 3/18

High pressure rebuilds before another pressure drop across the West 3/23-3/26. Below on 3/24, notice the forecast large ridge of high pressure off the West Coast and lower pressure anomalies across the Intermountain West.

Forecast pressure anomalies valid 3/24, GFS interpretation.

Snow Forecast

3/9-3/11:

Inches of total snow 3/9-3/11.

3/12-3/15:

Inches of total snow 3/12-3/15.

3/16-3/18:

Inches of total snow 3/16-3/18.

Northeast, 3/9-3/18:

90% of this snow occurs on 3/12 with a colder storm system.

Inches of total snow 3/9-3/18.

For more analysis please watch my forecast video: